The collapse of the dollar and Donald Trump hit the shares and bonds closed: casualties up to 14%

The S&P MERVAL ACTIONS They sank up to 14% This Monday, April 21, while CER bonds suffered losses of up to 3.2%, on a day marked by the strong bearish pressure on the official exchange rate thaton just two wheels, It almost completely erased the initial jump after the flexibility of the stocks. In parallel, the external climate also played against: Wall Street suffered a setback of strong magnitudes after former President Donald Trump intensified his criticism against Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, which generated concern about a greater instability in global markets.

In this way, in the local square, S&P Merval sank 6.1%, With two -digit falls from Ternium (-13.7%), and Aluar (-13.3%), exporters affected by the strong decline of the official exchange rate, that he gave 3.6% to $ 1,094, levels slightly above those registered in the previous one to the partial output of the stocks. CCL dollars, the leading panel decreased 2.4% to 1,806 points.

“The exchange rate continues to fall strongly, driven by growing market confidence in the imminent departure of the stocks. Many investors are looking to position themselves to take advantage of the ´Carry Trade ‘. Anyway, I think that, at these levels, perhaps either a little late to enter that strategy, although it will depend on the risk profile of each dollarized “, pointed to Scope, Matías Waitzelpartner of At investments.

The drop in the dollar was also reflected in the futures. Again, the entire curve ended down, exhibiting cuts of up to 4.5%. The April contract ended at $ 1,102 (-4.4%), May of May at $ 1,127 (-4.5%) and June at $ 1,151 (-4.4%). Thus, Implicit rates closed at 61.9% tea for May and 45.7% for June, PPI reported.

Argentine Actions on Wall Street

For its part, The papers of Argentine companies that quote on Wall Street scored generalized casualties, led by Cresud (-6.4%); IRSA (-5.5%), South gas transporter (-5.2%) and view (-5.1%).

In the US, in parallel to the opening of the wheel, Trump expressed himself once again in his social network against Powell, demanding again as soon as possible A decrease in the monetary policy rate. In that context, the indexes started the week markedly: The S&P500 sank 2.4%, Nasdaq fell 2.6%, while Dow Jones fell 2.5%. On the other hand, the 10 -year bonus rate advanced nine basic points reaching 4.41%, while Brent oil lost 2.1% au $ 6.53.

From a stock market society they warned that, although the value of the US market looks something more reasonable, They are not yet at historically attractive levels. In that context, they stressed that an eventual rebound of the S&P 500 could make sense only under certain assumptions: “With the somewhat more reasonable valuations today (it is still far from being cheap), it is well worth asking what opportunities begin to appear. We believe that, to the extent that you can avoid a recession, an entry point between 4,800 and 5,000 for the S&P500 makes a lot of sense (it is not cheap, but it makes sense) if we invest a long horizon of investment,” Ignacio Murua, Financial Advisor of Quicktrade SBS.

However, expectations go “Quite lower if the main economy of the world enters recession and we could see the S&P500 quoting near or below 4,000 points. That is why, despite the temptation that generates seeing the collapse of certain companies, mainly technological, we recommend caution and prudence when investing,” Murua added.

Bonds and Risk Country

For fixed income, meanwhile, Bonds in dollars closed the wheel with a majority losses. The most outgoing recorded them The Global and Bonar 2025, with a decrease of 1.1%. The short part was somewhat more defensive, and only fell to 0.7% (Global 2029 and Global 2030), in the Marrco of a bad day for the debt of emerging/border countries (the ETF EMB fell 1.2%).

Anyway, The country risk was practically unchanged, and closed at 720 points.

The Boprealon the other hand, 50 cents rose in the short section (series 1-B and 1-C) and 20 cents fell in the long section (1-D series and the 3 series).

Regarding the weights, The day of the day was given by the CER titles, which suffered decreases of up to 3.2%, since with the decline of the official exchange rate, the expectations of a price leap in April begin to deflate.

“The highlights of the day came from the hand of the official dollar that again fell again. In this way, the jump of the exchange rate post exit of the stocks would be void. Attentive to this, the expectations of an inflationary jump in April, began to reduce. The market began to reflect it today in the CER curve, which marked strong casualty”commented from IEB Group. “If on Tuesday the dynamic continues and the dollar continues to yield, we could see greater casualties in the CER curve,” They warned.

Finally, the fixed rate segment alternated Hijas and casualties along the curve and was on average almost unchanged. While Lecaps cut up to 0.7%, but the boncaps added up to 1.2%. Thus, The monthly effective rate (TEM) was located in the range of 2.2/2.7%. For its part, the dual fixed/tamar rate They finished mixed with casualties of up to 1.6% and increases of up to 1.6%.

According to operators, The falls in this segment responded to an expected to take profits after the strong entry to the “Carry Trade” post departure from the stocks, in a context in which The exchange rate approaches the lower band and several players They prefer to disarm positions to ensure yields.