Gold without a roof: it touched US $ 3,500 and accumulated a 30% escalation so far this year

He Gold continues to shine strongly In global markets. This Monday broke a new historical record by exceeding the U $ 3,400 per ounceand this Tuesday he crossed the psychological threshold of the US $ 3,500accumulating an impressive increase from 30% so far from 2025. In a scenario marked by economic and political uncertainty, precious metal consolidates its position as an active refuge par excellence.

He gold closed stable in 3,425.91 dollars the ounce, after having touched the $ 3,500,05. Gold futures in the United States won a 0.4%, to 3,438.4 dollars.

Among other metals, the silver The cash rose a 0.8% to 32.97 dollars an ounce; he platinum remained stable in 962.10 dollars; and the palladium A 1.8% to 944.21 dollars.

The keys behind the gold rise

According to Linh Tran, Market Analyst of XS.com, the gold rise is driven by three main factors: The growing geopolitical tension, the indefinition of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED) and the Escalation of the Commercial War promoted by the US President, Donald Trump. But there are more elements at stake.

One of them is the dollar weakness. In the last three months, the DXY index – which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of currencies – fell more than 10%, marking minimal not seen since the beginning of 2022. This depreciation favors gold, since it makes it more accessible to investors operating in other currencies. For example, the euro reached its highest level against the dollar since November 2021.

The sustained demand from central banks and the constant flows to the ETFs backed by gold They also feed the rise.

“In a low liquidity environment, risk assets are exposed. The perception of liquidity between the managers is the lowest from the bank crisis of 2023, and the assignments to variable income collapsed more than 50 points in two months. That has a direct impact,” says Javier Molina, an analyst.

Commercial tension continues to generate impact

From Trump’s return to the White House, the economic agenda was again dominated by the duty. The measures announced, modified or frozen have generated great volatility. The so -called “Liberation Day”, on April 2, marked a turning point with the imposition of reciprocal tariffs To dozens of countries.

Although some measures were suspended to open negotiation spaces, the Shock with China continues to intensify. Both countries mutually raised their rates to a critical point. According to Beijing, bilateral trade is “virtually broken”, and warn that they will not tolerate trade agreements among other countries and the US that harm Chinese interests.

In addition, China presented a demand before the World Trade Organization (WTO) Against the US and appointed a new commercial negotiator, Li Chenggang, former ambassador to the WTO.

In this context, Molina warns that volatility has gone from being a market narrative to become a concrete source of economic disruption. “Today, the market is not positioned to react upwards, even if good news arrives. It is blocked,” he says.

Fed, between political pressure and stagflation

American monetary policy is another focus of attention. In recent days, Trump intensified his criticism against Jerome Powellpresident of the Fed, demanding that the interest rates “immediately” fall. It even transpired that the White House evaluates its dismissal before the end of its mandate in 2026.

Former governor Kevin Warsh arises as a possible replacement, although he would have recommended not advancing with Powell’s displacement. For his part, the current head of the Fed was firm: he assured that his position is protected by law and reaffirmed the independence of the agency against political pressures.

“They can say what they want, but we will do our work without interference,” Powell said in a recent intervention in Chicago.

The Fed is in an awkward position: fears that the US economy entersa combination of stagnation, high inflation and unemployment. In that scenario, Powell warned that growth and inflation objectives could conflict.

The market, however, already discounts Between three and four rates cuts this yearalthough the first movements could be delayed. In that framework, Gold usually benefits from lower ratessince they reduce their opportunity cost.

Tran summarizes it as follows: “If the Dovish signals are confirmed and there are no great political or economic shocks, Gold has room to continue climbing towards new psychological levels in the short term. ”