Gold breaks records: What predicts us about the world economy?

The price of gold This Tuesday reached US $ 3,500 per ouncea level never seen in international markets. The rise – more than 30% so far this year – reflects a phenomenon that goes far beyond the price of an asset: It is a powerful sign of the degree of uncertainty that the global economy is going through.

Since the beginning of 2025, Gold not only exceeded all expectations, but did it in parallel to a widespread drop in stock markets. According to FACTSET data, The precious metal registered its greatest monthly increase since 2012driven by several convergent factors: geopolitical tensions, erratic monetary policy in the United States and global economic deceleration signs.

Gold as fear thermometer

Historically, gold is considered a Refugio against economic or financial crises. When investors lose confidence in traditional markets, they seek security in assets that preserve their value against volatility. In that context, the Gold Rally in 2025 exposes a clear trend: capitals are fleeing risk.

One of the main factors behind the phenomenon is Tariff war promoted by Donald Trumpwho resumed the presidency of the United States in January. Its commercial policy, marked by comings and turns, has already caused friction with China, Europe and other strategic partners, generating instability in global trade and strong falls in the bags.

The White House imposed new rates to imported products and threatened other reprisal measures, decolming governments, investors and central banks. The reaction was swift: great funds and countries began to reinforce their gold reserves as a measure of protection against possible financial disruption.

The IMF warns about a new economic era

In parallel, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) He trimmed his global growth projections to 2.8% for this year and anticipated a possible recession in Mexico. According to his chief economist, Pierre-Loivier Gourinchas, “the world economy is entering a new era”, with uncertain rules and without clear replacement of the multilateral system in force from the postwar period.

The IMF and the World Bank experts, gathered this week in Washington, showed concern for:

• Persistent inflation

• Trade deceleration

• High financial volatility

• Weakening of key coins against gold

China and central banks, great buyers

Another key fact behind the gold jump is the Sustained demand for central banksespecially China, which has been buying metal since 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At that time, several countries began to diversify your reserves and reduce your exposure to the dollarstrategy that was maintained and intensified in 2025.

In addition, the dollar weakness It also drives gold. Only so far this year, the US currency accumulates a depreciation of the 11%located in minimal not seen since 2022.

To this is added Trump’s recent threat to dismiss the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, for refusing to lower interest rates. The possibility of a less independent central bank in the US could further accelerate the demand for goldas coverage in the face of the loss of institutional credibility.

What can be expected?

The consensus between analysts is clear: If uncertainty persists, the price of gold could continue to climb at unprecedented levels. The markets observe the political decisions and the next movements of the Federal Reserve carefully, while the physical demand of the metal remains firm.

In a world in transition, where the dollar loses prominence, inflation threatens to stay and the rules of the game are under review, Gold shines again with force. And what its price says, today more than ever, It is a reflection of global fear.