Reservations: The BCRA has two months to buy 40% of the annual goal committed to the IMF

He President of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili, It will not have much time to wait for the value of the dollar in the official exchange market to drill the $ 1000 floor and go out to buy reservations, since in 60 days it must have accumulated 40% of the annual goal committed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The figure would reach about US $ 2,000 million And, in a sense, the government does not have much margin so that the dollar is located at the level you want, depending on its objective of lowering inflation as soon as possible, without having to validate a devaluation buying above that price.

Moreover, the agreement signed with the institution that leads Kristalina Georgieva, forces him to repurchase Between April and December, All the dollars he lost to try to defend the change rate of the first quarter.

Estimates about what the BCRA should buy are Cohen Argentina and depart from the base that the monetary authority started in January with negative reservations for US $ 2,400 millionsaccording to the IMF methodology.

The objective for June 30 is that the negative reserves are at US $ 2,900 million. It seems illogical that the IMF authorizes Argentina to deepen the imbalance, but in reality the Government lost US $ 5,000 million in the first quarter, as a result of President Javier Milei and the economic team led by Luis Caputo were determined to hold an exchange rate with a monthly 1% devaluation, in a context in which he was in doubt if there would be an exit of the stocks. In that interim, net reserves became negative at US $ 7.4 billion as of March 30.

Reservations: Where will the money go from for June?

According to Cohen Argentina economistsInternational reserves have to fall to negative for US $ 2,900 million in the second quarter. That is, the government has to add between April 1 and June 30 about US $ 4,500 million.

For the Stock Exchange, something More than US $ 2,100 million will have to buy the Central Bank, Under the hypothesis that the rest is financing will come from international credit organizations before the end of the quarter.

The agreement with the IMF foresees that if the money from organizations such as the World Bank, the IDB or the CAF is less, then the accumulation goal is adjusted down.

How is the account for the rest of the year?

Argentina has to pass From a red balance of US $ 2,400 million in 2024 to a positive one from US $ 1,600 million as of December 31, 2025, That is, in net, you have to add US $ 4,000 million.

To do this, and because he lost US $ 5000 million at the end of March, will have to repurchase that same figure to which add US $ 4,000 million of organizations.

In the middle, in the third quarter, because it enters low season of export settlement, because the bulk of the harvest was already settled, The agreement with the IMF foresees negative net reserves for US $ 3,000 million, that is, a deterioration of US $ 100 million compared to the June balance.