What is said at the tables: dollar at $ 1,000 “cost what it costs”, the inflationary expectation and the elections in sight

In the new life poscepo, Officially baptized as phase III, the climate that is breathed between the operations tables is a kind of revival of the “cost what it costs” by the Italian central banker Mario Draghi as leader of the ECB, who in terms of President Javier Milei and his economic team implies that The only thing that matters is that the price of the dollar falls to the floor of the wide exchange band of intervention set at $ 1,000 and $ 1,400. They understand in financial bunkers that the very short term of the Milei-capital binomial is to avoid a jump of the dollar so that Do not feed back inflationary expectations.

One of the contractors of this is true pressure on interest ratesabove all, before the parsimony of the Central Bank (BCRA) in the passes market. In addition, stubbornness for the dollar falling to less than $ 1,000 has a correlation with the Official warning to agricultural producers and exporters that they liquidate as soon as possible because in July the retentions to full return, and in the flexibility for foreign investors. But what comes from here in more, is the most heard consultation in the point -to -point contacts.

There the most aviesos advise to reread, especially the small and sections, of the Staff Report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that sealed the new agreement with Argentina. And in that line of thought, the most distrustful they rebuild that for what they are seeing, that is, the so -called revealed preference of the government seems to go on another path than the EFF program of the fund. In particular, they emphasize that both the guidelines for exchange intervention within the band and the promotion of increasing the demand for money, differ from what the hosts of the Treasury Palace and the BCRA are manifesting, and even the libertarian leader himself.

An “Call Money” operator of a foreign bank, replicating what a “Paper” of 1816 points out to colleagues that, phase III seems to have several stages, where the very short term priority is to revalue the currency, then machear with the back of the background. Therefore, between the option of accumulating reservations and slowing inflation, in order to return to country risk levels in line with the entrance door of volunteer international debt markets, Milei-capital tandem prefers to go for the deflation that predicts more electoral chances for what is coming. That is why they believe that official thought is in disinflar. And in something, they are convincing the market that glimpses a horizon of less than 2% monthly between the third and fifth bimester of the year.

“Cheap” dollar, “Carry Trade” and Fashion Argentina, are a combo that encouraged several local bankers and managers to participate in the events of the IMF and BM meeting in Washington. In one of the meetings sponsored by a global investment bank, the Argentines were besieged and machine -gunned to questions and consultations about opportunities with Argentine financial assets. Meanwhile change of figurines, one of the besieged threw the data that for the first time in the Milei era, the BCRA had intervened in the dollar futures market closing last March with a position sold of almost US $ 380 million. If compared to the Kirchner experiences and even that of Cambiemos, it seems a return, but warned that they should understand that this occurred before closing the new agreement with the IMF, which realizes that the BCRA does not expect to intervene in futures.

On the other side of the DC, two well -known Argentines in the vernacular red circle, debated on Argentina, economist Marcos Buscaglia and political scientist Alejandro Catterberg (Poliarchy) in McLarty Associates, in a talk organized by Kezia McKeague. At the end, there was almost a diaspora towards one of the IIF events in which no less than the old known secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Besent, who walked a few hours for Baires in the mid -month, then surprised with the announcement of the possibility of granting a line of credit to Argentina via the famous stabilization fund of reservations (INFOS, for its acronym in English).

As expected, the IIF event with all the planas of international banks, under the sponsorship of Swift, brought together those responsible for the formulation of financial policies and leaders who gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the IMF and BM. Everything started with a “breakfast with the media” that prepared the forum scene, presenting Greg IP of The Wall Street Journal and Saleha Mohsin of Bloomberg, in a lively conversation with the president and executive director of IIF, Tim Adams. Then Marcello Estevao of the IIF led the discussion about the macroeconomic and market implications of Trump’s policies in the US, the EU and China. Opening, together with Isabelle Mateos and Lake BNP Paribas, Swift Harry Newman, Helen (Hong) Qiao de Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Angel Ubide de Citadel, while Alexis Crow de PWC, Wendy Cutler of the Asia Society and Eric Geopolitics of tariffs and reprisals.

Then came one of the main dishes. Scott Besent, Who in his opening speech before talking with Tim Adams, highlighted the Trump administration approach: “The United States first does not mean only the United States. On the contrary, it is a call to a deeper collaboration and mutual respect among commercial partners.” Then came an avalanche of counterpoints with the central banker of the United Kingdom, Andrew Bailey, Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque of the European Commission, Congressman French Hill, president of the Financial Services Committee of the US House of Representatives.

After several round tables where they participated among others, Arend Kapteyn of UBS, Christian Keller de Barclays, Mahmood Pradhan de Amundi, closed referents of the central bank, highlighting the participation of the Argentine Vladimir Werning with his colleague of Turkey Hatice Karahan and Philip Lane of the European Central Bank. In a Coffee Break some porteños commented on the media entrepreneurship of the second line of the economic team, Furiase, Vauthier and Nuñez who launched a streaming program on the Ceja channel baptized “The Three Anclas”. Much does not like to communicate through these channels and there are no press conferences, Sturzenegger style in the BCRA. But it is what there is.

The high debt and high interest rates are testing the resilience of companies As the risks of refinancing of companies increase and that was perceived in the prolegomena of the IMF meeting where experts at each meeting emphasized the preparation for crises rather than crisis management. Concern was also perceived for the divergence between the dollar and the US Treasury bonds in all counterpoints. Two local managers for the DC commented that their pairs of Wall Street explained that one of the most disturbing phenomena in the financial markets has recently been only volatility, but the unusual divergence between the behavior of the dollar and the yields of the treasure bonds: while the latter rebound, the dollar falls. This pattern, weird in the US, is usually observed in emerging economies during capital exits.

One of them put on the table Martin Wolf’s article in the Financial Times (“The Economic Consecquences of a Mad King”), in which he warns that the real risk is not only in protectionist policies, but in the arbitrary form in which decisions are being made that undermine the global trade system.

Wolf wrote that “No one can believe that this will reindustrialize the US will rather paralyze business, raise prices and stop the economy.” What was very commented, both in the financial and academic environment is the nomination of the influential economist Mohamed El-Erian as rector of the University of Cambridge.

On the other sidewalk, in Oxford, the case of the debt exchange of Ivory Coast was discussed, focused on how development debt exchanges could become a more conventional option in the restructuring of sovereign debt. In 2024, Ivory Coast launched a pioneering exchange of debt by development, backed by the World Bank, to reallocate 40 million euros in savings to education, of which 20 million were used to expand the fiscal space.

According to experts, it is a guarantee based on policies of 500 million euros, the refinancing of the expensive commercial debt and the use of existing monitoring frameworks for efficient application. This innovative agreement demonstrates the practical potential of these exchanges to simultaneously relieve debt pressures and support a shocking development. To keep it in mind, for doubts.