In these two weeks, investors have some key certainties to look at their portfolios and decide or not, make a change:
CEPO Departure: Who were the winners and the losers?
According to a GMA capital report, instruments such as Lecaps, Cer and Dual Bonds had average profits of between 12.9% and 16% in dollars. “This is not only due to the appreciation of the weight, but also to the compression of rates that took place after the implementation of the new program,” they clarify from the Stock Exchange.
On the other hand, they point out that dollars in dollars also had good returns. The possible factor of this rebound between the global and bonars could have been in the first place the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), greater certainty on exchange policy and why not, the fulfillment of one of the key campaign promises: the departure of the stocks.
Within this framework, GMA capital highlights that Global and bonars were revalued 10.6% and 9.4% respectively. The Linked and Bopreal dollar bonds were also appreciated to the CCL. However, from the ALYC they highlight that “both were the star assets of 2025 until only 2 weeks, having supported the volatility started in January much better than other instruments.”
In this framework, The world of weights seems to meet: After the last debt tender of the month that the Ministry of Economy carried out, a stretch of the deadlines (six months) and LECAPS could be seen closing around the 2.6% monthly.
Fixed or closure?: The Quid of the matter
With this new scenario, the crux of the matter seems to be around whether the Lecaps or CER bonds now agree. And of course, it will depend on the expectation in the medium term and the inverter profile.
Paula Gándara, ASSET Management of Adcap Grupo Financiero, explained that once the beginning of phase 3 took place, the investor stopped seeking coverage due to devaluation and migrated towards inflation coverage. “We are not seeing inflationary impact in April, however what begins to see is the concept of ‘Carry Trade’ with this idea of the appreciation of the currency. That is why the returns of the bonds in pesos will overcome the bonds in dollars. Now what is sought is returns,” he said. And added: “Lecaps and demand funds for Money Market began to search again and short -term LECAPS funds to preserve the volatility of fees. Others, decided to point towards longest bonds. “
From Adcap they argue that the CER bonds are at the point of entry: “After a strong initial subperformance of the bonds in pesos (TZXD7 closed with an increase of 21% from April 11 to Monday), the correction in the official exchange rate offers a Best entry point for the asset class. Therefore, we continue to be positioned in the TZXD6 and TZXD7 Bonce, since we hope they exceed the dollar bonds in a range of 10% to 23% towards the end of the year. “
Finally, Juan Manuel Franco, Chief Economist of Grupo SBS, contributed his vision in the debate on fixed rate vs Cer. In this sense, he remarked that it will be necessary “quickly anchor expectations” to resume the disinflation process.
“We believe that if the government manages to carry, as stated, the dollar to the band’s floor, fixed rate would be a winner in front of CER, while less constructive profiles with inflation can bet on Cer. That said, it should be taken into account that if the government aims to take the dollar to the band’s floor, Measures that press real up upward rates could occurin order to take the exchange rate there. This must also be contemplated, since Royal rates raises would harm the papers in pesos. However, it will depend on View of each investor on the government’s ability not only to resume disinflation but also if there will be movements in real rates to achieve that goal. “
Source: Ambito
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