Citi foresees a year hinge for blockchain technology thanks to the stablecoins

The expected impulse for the cryptocurrency market after the arrival of Donald Trump To the White House in 2025 it did not materialize as many analysts foresaw. The unpredictable nature of the US president and his erratic economic policy caused high volatility in the sector in recent months.

However, Citi argues that 2025 could still be a year hinge for blockchain technology. According to the New York bank, this period could become the “Chatgpt Moment” Blockchainsimilar to the rise that artificial intelligence lived recently. The engine of this expansion would be an unexpected actor: Stablecoins.

The growth of the stablecoins

The stablecoins – records whose value is linked to traditional assets such as the dollar or raw materials – were consolidated as a crucial bridge between the traditional financial system and the digital ecosystem. Its objective is to offer price stability, avoiding extreme volatility typical of other cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Currently, the market is dominated by USDT (Tether) with a capitalization of 145,000 million dollars and USDC (Circle) with 60,000 million. Citi projects that, in a base scenario, the ‘stablecoins’ could grow to reach the US $ s1.6 billion in 2030. In a more optimistic scenario, the market could expand to US $3.7 billionalthough regulatory risks could limit that growth to 500,000 million at worst.

The low regulatory impulse Trump

Citi points out that regulation in the United States will be key to this growth. Trump plans to sign two laws before August – the projects Stable and Genius– That they will establish a regulatory framework for the issuance and trade of ‘stablecoins’ backed by the dollar.

A clear regulation, according to Citi, would allow these tokens to integrate more deeply in the financial system, offering faster payments, greater transparency and a more efficient settlement of assets. In addition, it would stimulate new use cases both in the private and public sector.

Domain domain and the impact on US debt

Citi foresees that approximately the 90% of the ‘stablecoins’ will continue to be called in dollars by 2030. This could transform the emitters of ‘stablcoins’ into large buyers of the US Treasury bonds, reaching a possession of up to 1.2 billion dollars In public debt towards the end of the decade, provided that regulation requires backs in liquid and low -risk assets.

Meanwhile, alerts grow in Europe. The Minister of Economy of Italy, Giancarlo Giorgettiwarned that American policy about ‘Stablcoins’ is an even greater challenge for Europe than commercial tariffs. “More dangerous than tariffs is the progress of the stablecoins backed by the dollar,” he said recently in Milan, asking the European Union to reinforce the internationalization of the euro.

In response, the European Central Bank (ECB) advances in the project of a Digital euro to protect monetary sovereignty against the progress of private digital currencies.

Finally, Citi warns about risks inherent to Stablecoins, such as frequent losses of parity. According to Moody’s data cited in its report, in 2023 almost almost registered 1,900 parity lossesincluding more than 600 incidents that involved the main tokens on the market.