The director of the Central Bank, Federico Furiase, He went on Monday to defend the government’s monetary policy, after some questions received about the monetization of the economy and the transfer to the National Treasury of Utilities accrued in the 2024 exercise.
Furiase Focus what the economic team called “Anker point”, which refers to the point where banks begin to demand weights for a real increase in the demand for money, and the purchase of dollars on the band of the band.
“In dynamic general equilibrium, the remumination is not the remedization via treasure returning pesos in primary tenders against debt cancellation and monetization via BCRA dollars on the band’s floor. On the other hand, on the other hand, From the Poly Maker side, you always have to be one step forward and gain optionality in scenarios with multiple balances”, Says the economist in a long post in social networks.
Furiase explains that “LA Reonicalization via Treasury returning $ in primary tenders against debt cancellation reflects an excess demand for pesos (Liquidity)/Excess supply of public titles of banks (“Anker Point”) consisting of real endogenously positive rates, derived from a virtuous process of collapse of inflation, low nominal rates and recovery of the demand for money/credit of the private sector, given the wide monetary base. ”
On the other hand, he points out that “The remumination via the purchase of USD of the BCRA on the band of the band is the consequence of an excess peso demand/supply of dollarsgiven the macro foundations, the sanitation of the expected stocks and the flows. The band’s level (mobile) level has to do with the fact that given the recapitalization of the BCRA with USD20,000 million immediate disbursements of free availability liquid reserves, the priority is to maintain “M” fixed inside the bands prioritizing the target of disinflation ”.
When they estimate that the BCRA will buy reservations
Therefore, Luis Caputo’s advisor argues that “This follows that the remoteization via the purchase of USD on the band’s floor does not necessarily resolve excess peso demand (Liquidity)/Excess supply of treasure titles of banks for two reasons. ”
Furiase explains that “on the one hand, the adjustment speed is not the same: we can have a tender of the treasure with Roll Over less than 100% for the good reasons (” Anker point “) before reaching the band’s floor. On the other hand, The “Anker Point” has to do with an optimal portfolio decision of banks to increase their exposure to the private sector (giving credits to families and companies) to the detriment of the exhibition in the public sector, the product of macro stabilization and the non -need for treasure financing ”.
Consequently, he states that “This dynamic is independent of the FX level to which the monetice BCRA against purchase of USD and in some tenders is an inelastic process at the cutting rate of the tender of the Treasury ”.
Furiase ensures that “the Policly Maker has to be one step forward and gain options in scenarios with multiple balances: hence the preventive construction of a reserve mattress in treasure pesos for 1 year with the primary surplus and the net placations of the treasure in the local market, as the minister explained on successive occasions.”
“Reservations in pesos now reinforced with the BCRA utilities turn to the Treasury that will be deposited in the BCRA with neutral monetary effect and that were originated in the fiscal surplus and the financial strategy of the treasure (in addition to equivalent to approximately the primary sterilizing surplus estimated for the whole year),” added the economist.
Furiasto highlights that they are “Reservations in Treasury pesos that function as an exclusive buffer to cover possible tendor tendor with Roll Over below 100% for the good reasons against cancellation of debt (strengthening the intertemporal fiscal solvency) as a counterpart of the excess demand for liquidity of the banks to increase the demand for credit of families and companies (virtuous balance) ”.
“Buffer of pesos that also limits the expected volatility of fees, encouraging the extension of the inverter inverter’s duration with the financial strategy that has been carrying the treasure. To the extent that other players enter (common funds, non -resident investors, among others), this voltage should be reversed accelerating the compression process of real rates and the demand for treasure bond bonds in local currency,” Furiese concluded.
Source: Ambito
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