Investment strategies in phase 3: The market focuses on rates and an asset could be “desert”

The new economic scenario poses significant challenges for Wealth Management teams of the different local Alycs. In a market of historically volatile capitals in Argentina, Phase 3 of the Government’s economic program forces portfolios managers to redesign their investment strategies Faced with a novel dynamic: a regime of exchange bands, which, unlike the parallel bands of the Government of Mauricio Macri, adjust monthly -1% and +1% in their lower and upper limits, and generate a “cone” that progressively reduces the need for official intervention.

This scheme also redefines the behavior of assets and place the interest rates in the center of the scenewith a much more optimistic short and medium term panorama than in the previous weeks. In parallel, the process of disinflation and the search for an endogenous dollarization within a managed flotation regime require a Fine timing reading and a tactical attitude to windows of opportunity that could be short -term.

Within this framework, strategies such as “TRADE DE TASAS”different types of arbitrations between sections of the curve, “Carry Trade” and compression bets of Spreads that seek to capture value in an environment where macroeconomic and monetary policy signals acquire a new logic, and where the “rearrangement” of rates and yields will be decisive in decision making.

Within the framework of a new edition of EFI Expo Analysts speaking in different panels on investments, with the presence of Grupo SBS, Bull Market, and PPI, among others. What did they say about it?

Weights: Attractive rate, but risk care

With positive real yields in the short term, The strategies in pesos are the most chosen: the debate is maintained between CER and LECAP. LECAP for “optimists” with inflation and closed for “less optimistic”.

During the panels, the possibility of A product that could be at risk of extinction: It’s about Dollar Linkedthat before a new economic scheme, the coverage for exchange jump ceases to fulfill its main function in the face of the little interest of coverage in hard currency. An eventual “exchange jump” is limited by the band scheme itself.

In this scenario, LECAP continues to capture interest in the short term. Tamar rate bonds also gain ground, whose TNA stands at 34.8%, exceeding 29% of traditional fixed deadlines.

Bonds in dollars: country risk compression potential

A recurring theme in the panels was the possibility of compression of the country risk towards levels close to the 500 basic points. This opens a margin of significant revaluation for sovereign bonds in dollars, in particular the Global 2030which is emerging as one of the most prominent of the middle section of the curve.

For the most conservative investors, the BOPREALES They are still the favorite alternative. The expectation is now set on the new issuance of the Bopreal 4which will also begin to be negotiated in the secondary market.

Actions: corrections in process, to the “hunt” of value

Without a doubt, This seems to be the year of volatility and fixed income over the Variable Income. With great profits for the S&P Merval last year, perhaps the aspect that analysts stand out most is that the correction remains in process. The new driver could go hand in hand with the October elections, in case the government settles its political strength. In this sense, the energy sector leads preferences, with YPF, Pampa Energy and View at the head, the latter reinforced for its recent acquisition of Petronas assets.

At the international level, the Yields of Google (Alphabet), Amazon and Cloudwhile the global focus remains in assets that are part of the so -called “7 magnificent”, with long -term profile.

How to assemble a portfolio

In the “local and international view” panel, moderated by Estefanía Pozzo (Director of Buenos Aires Herald), referents of PPI (Pedro Siaba Serrate), Balanz (Pilar Tavella), Capital Markets (Mateo Hermida), Iol (Maximiliano Donzelli) and Inviu (Diego Martínez Burzaco) outlined a guide to build portfolios with less participation of USA, with prominent value in emerging and opportunities in local equity.

• Conservative profile:
• BOPREALES.
• Subsoberans: provincial bonds of Cordova and Santa Fefor its best credit quality.
• Moderate profile:
• Corporate bonds such as MSU2030 and Pampa Energy emissions.
• Aggressive profile:
• Sovereign bonds in dollars like the Global 2030 and the Global 2035in the middle section of the curve.
• In Variable Income: View (Muerta Vaca) and banks like Galicia and Supervielle, the latter with the highest level of risk.

In regional terms, Brazil It emerges as a strategic destination. He ETF EWZ It is a distinguished option to add exposure to Brazilian Equity, in a year marked by elections. Companies also stand out Cloud and Okay.

Globally, companies such as Google (Alphabet) and Goal They remain as good alternatives to add the US in the wallet.