Dollar, rate or inflation: which can win the race in May

The new government exchange strategy generated an alteration in the race between the dollar, inflation and rates. Nevertheless, Market forecasts indicate that the currency would rise in May below price increases and yields in pesos.

In April, The economic team, conducted by Luis Caputo, threw the “Crawling Peg” of 1% monthly. which was applying for the official exchange rate. From the liberation of the stocks for human people, a exchange band of flotation bands was passed; If the price is maintained inside those bands, the Central Bank will not intervene in principle.

Initially those bands started between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400. As the dollar operated within that range, the BCRA did not intervene, although there are those who anticipate that the monetary authority could buy currencies in the short term to fulfill the reserves goal that was agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Product of this modification in exchange policy, The wholesale officer accumulated a 8.9% increase in the last month. However, since the devaluation was less than expected and that we are in the middle of the thick harvest, the market expects some calm in the change market for May.

According to prices agreed in the future dollar contracts in Matba Rofex, the dollar It will rise 2.3% in the month to begin. For the following months, monthly adjustments of between 1.5% and 2.3% are expected.

Inflation did not have great acceleration, but it has a difficult floor to drill

These projections are located below the estimates of the private sector for inflation of the period in question. Although the consumer price index (CPI) would have slowed in April, the devaluation leaves a difficult floor to drill In the short term.

The majority of the consultants calculated that inflation was just lower than March, which had been 3.7%. Eco Go estimated 3%, PXQ 3.1%and C&T 2.7%. While, for Analytica, the rise was 3.8%, above that of the previous month.

For May, the inertia of the devaluation effect and the increases of between 2.5% and 3% for light and gas rates will make The CPI is hardly located significantly below 3%.

Treasury rates exceed 3% monthly

As for rates, today the average of what the fixed deadlines In the main commercial banks of the country it is 30.8% annual nominal, which is equivalent to a 2.6% monthly. In this way, the returns in pesos beat the expected devaluation, but their increase in real terms (that is, its rise above inflation) is more difficult, as long as the current rates are maintained and the projections are met.

Also, the Treasury Lyrics which recently placed the Ministry of Economy (expiration in August and September) were awarded with annual rates of between 36% and 38%, equivalent to a 3% and 3.2% monthlyrespectively.