The “Blue Guru” predicted a dollar under $ 1,000

The financial analyst Salvador Di Stéfanoknown as the “Blue dollar guru”offered an analysis of the new exchange scheme for the dollar and the inflationtwo key data when making decisions about investments.

Then the analyst’s column:

The dollar comes to less than $ 1,000

The wholesale dollar rose 9.2% and inflation comes below 3%. The lower dollar band of $ 1,000. What will happen to the value of the dollar?

The financial system in April is showing us until the 25th a contraction of 4.7% in the total deposits in pesos, while in the fixed deadlines the fall is 3.8%. Deposits in both public and private dollars grow 3.3%in April.

Loans to the private sector grow in the month to 6.2%the ones that increase the most are the most core mortgage loans that do it at 10.5%. We lend to the private sector in foreign currency grow to 0.4%.

What we have observed since the exit of the weight is that the fees in pesos have been shown neutral, for example, an effective fixed term rate for more than 1,000 million pesosApril 11 was at 40.0% and April 29 at 39.9% per year. There is no significant variation, however, the fixed term rate in dollars for more than one million passage of 1.21% to 2.56% per year.

Of these data, we can appreciate that there was a fixed -term tanks in pesos that passed to dollars at a significantly lower rate. We believe that it is a mistake to move from a rate in pesos of 39.9% annual in pesos at a dollar rate of 2.56% per year, since we hope for the coming months a revaluation of the peso, which makes the dollar unattractive. However, public opinion makes an inverse assessment.

It is interesting to analyze the projections of the intervention bands of the Central Bank for the coming months. For example, for the month of October that is when the legislative election would be carried out, the update of the upper band would be located at a reference value of $ 1,486. While the lower band is located at $ 941, and the future dollar October is at $ 1,310. It would be interesting to project for the elections a price of the expected dollar.

However, The first is the inflation of Aprilaccording to the average of the consultants, the expected inflation would be around 2.5% to 2.9%, below 3.7% of the month of March that was presented as an anomaly, and that in the following months inflation could follow an important decrease, to be below 1.0% for the month of October of the year 2025 at the time of the legislative elections.

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Dollar and inflation: what comes for the economy according to the “Blue Guru”.

Depositphotos

For May, many increases in some public services will weigh, but the 4% decrease in fuel will be decisive in the final result. Another important component such as meat would be on May, with which inflation in May could be lying between 2.0% and 2.5%. With these numbers it is not attractive to invest in instruments to adjust inflation, it would give the impression that you have to take profits in these products.

The expectation of inflation for the next 12 months from our projections would be around 13.5% per year, which can see that effective rates in pesos for fixed period around 40% per year are exaggeratedly positive, we believe they should fall.

As for the dollarwe consider that in the months of the Government is interested in going down to the band of the band, which does not rule out that for the elections it could be located at $ 981.7. While a year seen, it could be located at $ 896.2 which would represent a decrease of 23.5%.

If the dollar had this bearish route as projected, we do not rule out that many prices will have a bearish tour, which can see a recession along the way, since many economic agents will wait to buy assets, waiting for a low price in the economy.

Conclusion

• For the October 2025 elections we could have an inflation rate below a digit and the dollar quoting under $ 1,000.
• In this context, ideal investments would be in pesos and not in foreign currency.
• The official dollar in April showed a rise of 9.2%, however, the pass at prices was not given, the market awaits inflation between 2.5%and 2.9%, while for May an inflation less than these figures is avoided.
• The Merval index fell 10.2% in pesos in the month of April, while in dollars under 0.8%. We believe that when the dollar stabilizes the Merval index will show a significant rise in pesos and dollars.
• The Al35 sovereign bonus in April showed a decrease in pesos of 3.5%, while in dollars it rose 7.3%. Recall that this bonus is worth $ 67.90 and in the months of July 2025 and January 2026 pays rent for US $ 4,125 which leaves you pocket a rate of 6.0% per year, plus the difference of the parity value in the market.
• The Government will issue a 4 -series bopreal for an amount of US $ 3,000 million, the bonus will pay a rate of 3.0% per year, which is semi -annually, while the amortization will be at the end, the capital will be paid in a single payment in October of the year 2028. This bonus will absorb the markets that will enhance the decrease of the exchange rate at levels below $ 1,000.