Dollar and “Carry Trade”: Despite the turbulence of March, capital repatriation remained firm

Dollar and “Carry Trade”: Despite the turbulence of March, capital repatriation remained firm

In what was the prelude to the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the announcement of greater Flexibility of the exchange ratein the midst of disturbing exchange and financial days, by Fourth consecutive month The Argentines continued repatriating funds from abroad and injecting dollars to the domestic market throughout March. They were, according to the latest data from the Central Bank (BCRA), U $ S168 million the positive net flow that re -entered the local financial system.

This way, The first quarter of the year shows a level of repatriation or disassembly of US $ S543 millionwhich already represents almost a quarter of all the net flow entered last year.

Official statistics show that, last March, the call “Net training of external assets of residents of the non -financial private sector” (FAE) registered a surplus result of US $ 168 millionmade up of net sales of tickets for US $ 87 million and net income for foreign exchange for US $ 81 million, mainly from exterior accounts in foreign currency, which is known in the market as “exchanges”.

On the one hand, the result of tickets was explained by the Net sales of legal persons for US $ 64 million and other US $ 22 million from individuals and families (they sold 28 million and bought tickets for 6 million). While the currency result was explained by the net income of the real sector (US $ 28 million), the natural persons (US $25 million), of institutional investors (US $ 24 million) and the oilseed sector and cereals for U $ 4 million.

What is observed is that last March is that The net flow from the net sale of tickets was matched to the flow of foreign investments since last January the total almost corresponded to tickets in more than 90%, In February it fell a little more than 70% and in March it was almost half and half. On the other hand, the direct investments of non -residents in the non -financial private sector registered last March, for the first time since December 2024, net income through the exchange market for US $ 97 million.

Non -financial private sector financial account surplus

At added level, the Non -financial private sector financial account registered a US $ 450 million surplus in March As a result of the net income of financial debts abroad and debt titles for US $ 430 million, for the net liquidation of local financial loans for US $ 345 million, for the net income of external assets (FAE) for US $ S168 million, of foreign direct investment for US $ 97 million, for the net revenues of loans of international organizations for US $ 23 million securities in foreign currency for US $ 16 million.

All this positive flow was partially compensated by the Records of exchange operations for net transfers with the outside for US $ 379 million, for the cancellations of foreign currency balances with local entities for the use of cards with non -resident suppliers for US $242 million (which do not imply a net demand for foreign currency in the financial account) and for the net portfolio investments expenses of non -resident portfolio for US $ 7 million.

Deficit of the financial account of the financial sector

While, on the side of the Financial sector, March exchange financial account operations were deficit at US $ 1,210 million. As explained by the BCRA, the deficit was mainly due to the increase for US $ 1,133 million of the possession of foreign currency assets of the entities that make up the general position of changes (PGC), which did not happen since October last year.

In turn, “The entities had net expenses for financial loans, credit lines and other credits for US $ 51 million and for the net subscription of securities with foreign currency for US $ 26 million,” Add the BCRA.

These numbers gave rise to The entities will end March with a PGC stock of US $ 9,590 million, which meant an increase of 13% compared to the closure of the previous month. Why did the PGC increase? It is that there was an increase in the possession of currencies for US $ 2,965 million that was partially compensated by the fall in the possession of tickets for US $ 1,832 million.

According to the BCRA data, the banks closed March with a possession of foreign currency tickets of US $ 5,511 million, stock that represented 57% of the total PGC (which entities keep to meet the movements of local deposits in foreign currency and the needs of the gear market), the lowest level since 2022.

On the other hand, The financial system closed March with a position sold at foreign currency for US $ 972 million, decreasing its position sold compared to the closure of the previous month by about US $17 million. During March, the entities bought US $ 52 million in institutionalized markets and sold US $ 35 million directly to “Forwards” customers. Foreign capital entities decreased their position sold compared to last month by US $ 32 million, while national entities deepened their position sold at $ S15 million. In this way, they closed March with net positions of US $ 520 million YU $ S452 million, respectively.

Source: Ambito

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