Government promotes bimonnetarism, with greater circulation of dollars: impact on the price of the ticket, reserves and GDP

He already said it Kristalina Georgievathe Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF): There are $ 200,000 million “under the mattress” and “who knows where”. TO Little of the end of the laundering on Wednesday, the government prepares to launch a new AS under the sleeve that increases the offer of dollarsoriented to consolidate a bimonary economy, in which Argentines return to enter currencies to the formal circuit, as part of a process of Reconetization of the economy.

“We do not emit pesos. If we aspire to sustain a 6% growth with this monetization level, in the medium term it becomes unsustainable”, Warned the Minister of Economy on Monday, Luis Caputo.

USE OF DOLLARS: The measures that are in folder

Next week, the Government will announce measures to promote the use of dollars. Some of the options under study are:

It is important to point out what the remumination consists of. The process is thus told by which the circulation of money in an economy is increased, with the aim of improving liquidity and activity. This process may involve several measures, but it generally focuses on Reactivate the use of currency in circulation (either in pesos, dollars or other currency) so that it flows more in everyday transactions and in the financial system. To sustain the low money supply, the Treasury will continue to absorb weights through bond placements, such as the new Boprealalready confirmed by the Central Bank.

A growth conditioned to the circulation of money

According to the last Survey of market expectations (REM)the economy is expected to grow a 5% in 2025. However, that projected growth and the fiscal surplus are not enough by themselves. The Government needs the funds – in pesos and dollars – to circulate in the real economy, do not be paralyzed, and help consolidate recovery beyond the “drag effect” of 2024, already thinking even in 2026.

In that sense, the minister Luis Caputo It was clear: “We do not emit pesos. If we aspire to sustain a 6% growth with this level of monetization, in the medium term it becomes unsustainable.” The phrase reflects the tension between the need to maintain fiscal discipline and, at the same time, allow enough money to be in circulation to accompany the rebound of the activity.

How does the remoteization impact on the dollar and reserves?

In the short term, one of the main challenges is to strengthen reserves and sustain confidence. According to the economist Andrés Salinasincrease the Bank lace in dollars – Product of the entry of currencies to the system- improves the ability of the BCRA to intervene and stabilize the exchange market. In addition, the government seeks that part of those U $ 200,000 million In the hands of the Argentines they go to the system, helping to reinforce the liquidity In foreign currency.

“There is an ‘urgency’ for accumulating currencies, in the future we have maturities to face and every stock that we can obviously have that it will help; I think the government is thinking about all these things, a kind of killing several birds of a shot,” he said.

For its part, the analyst Andrés Reschini, F2 finance, stressed that the fundamental objective is to attack the inflation Strengthening the weight: “If more dollars enter and the weight becomes relatively scarce, inflation could fall.” However, he warned that success will depend on two factors:

1. How tempting is the incentive.
2. And the political scenario, since if there is no certainty about a result favorable to the ruling party in the elections, perhaps the currency holders prefer to wait. “The incentive must be greater than risk and that we do not know. I think that laundering was an antecedent that the government knows that it must encourage,” he concluded.

Dollar Blue Cuevas

The government seeks to injject more dollars into the economy.

Depositphotos

A gradual process in an electoral year

Finally, Elena AlonsoEconomist and Co-Founder of Emerald Capital, considered that the process can have an impact on the short term, but that the Indistinct use of both coins will take longer To consolidate.

“That we pay with the two coins will take a little longer. It is an electoral year, and that makes many wait to see how the value of the peso and also that of the dollar evolves. Even so, this re -delighting process can help reduce demand for dollars and stabilize the exchange rate, ”he said.