He defined it Peter Oppenheimerstrategist of Goldman Sachs Group Who also said: “The asymmetry in investment in variable income is scarce. The sudden increases in bearish markets are the standard, not the exception“
The main market engine is still uncertaintywithout a real aluminist or bassist long -term conviction by investors. Price dynamics are mainly driven by short -term holders and conjectures on How will the rapid evolution of US tariffs be explained through corporate results and the readjustment of the valuations.
“If tariff ads are quickly reversed and long -term economic damage is minimal, this suggests that the downward risks are limited. However, With current valuations, I also believe that the bullish potential is limited “wrote Oppenheimer in a note.
Historical data support these sayings
Since 1980, The global stock market experienced several rises in bearish contexts, which on average lasted 44 days and registered 14%profits. And although the fall of this year’s world actions is not officially a bassist fall, prices have a recovery of 18% from the minimum intradicate reached on April 7.
“Risk rates and assets will continue to be driven by the headlines”said Peter Tchir, Macroestratega by Academy Securities.
In parallel, Goldman Sachs operators pointed out that the purchases of systematic macro investors amounted to $ 51,000 million last weekand purchases for US $ 57 billion are expected this week. “The size of total purchases is not insignificant, but not greater, since if the signals fluctuate rapidly, it can reduce the immediate rhythm of the flows, and the volatility environment is greater than before,” they wrote.
It could be said that other support flows during rebound are more forced. The JPMorgan Chase & Co. tactical positioning monitor is currently in a neutral statewith a weekly change that shows a “moderate increase in positioning.”
The gross leverage of coverage funds regained month by month and is currently in the long -term 96 percentile. Meanwhile, small family businesses continued to increase the risk. “According to our data, the retail sector registered the strongest shopping month since 2017, with purchases of both individual and ETF shares,” according to the JPMorgan positioning intelligence team, directed by John Schlegel.
Source: Ambito
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