The market has begun a new stage in the year 2025, as of April 15, the reserves rose to the US $ 36,777 million, a product of the disbursement of US $ 12,000 million of the IMF, although there were complementary disbursements that led reserves to a maximum of US $ 39,291 million, last Friday they closed at US $ 38,155 million. To this day, neither the floor, the roof of the band, therefore, the Central Bank did not intervene in the market.
The wholesale dollar closed at $ 1,113.58, when at the end of 2024 it had closed to $ 1,032.50. It is very likely that the wholesale dollar goes down to the band of the band that is located today around $ 990, which we are in time to take measures to protect our savings.
The futures market shows an implicit rate of 29.5% annually, well below the interest rate paid by the fixed bank deadlines for more than $ 1 billion (Tamar rate) that is located in 34.5% per year, while the rates of the LECAP in short deadlines pay a nominal rate of 30% annual. In all cases the rates are positive against the expected future inflation.
It is interesting the dynamism that the future dollar market has taken, where the open interest, which are the positions to win, grew to be $ 4,307 million, against a stock of US $ 2,925 million as of April 30. The striking thing is the concentration of operations with December expiration of the year 2025 that already adds an open interest of US $ 846 million. This denotes that the market went out to take coverage, the great beneficiary of these operations is the A3 company that is quoted in the stock market, and that it could have an improvement in its profits, to take into account.
The country risk before the stock was lifted was 874 points, while last Friday Cerro at 678 points, with a decrease of 22.4%. In the same period of time on April 11, the wholesale dollar was worth $ 1,078.35, while last Friday at $ 1,113.58, which reflects a rise of 3.26%, for now there was no pass at the price of this improvement.
Last Thursday, the projected data of the market estimates of the Central Bank market were known, the projections are very divergent with those of the government itself. The market average sees inflation by April of the year 2026 of 26.3% annual, a devaluation rate of 17.7%, a wholesale dollar at $ 1,379 and an annual 7.3% dollars inflation. By April of the year 2026 the exchange bands would be located on a floor of $ 886.4, while the roof would be located at $ 1,577.6. The projections of the average of the REM analysts are seeing that the wholesale dollar is located closer to the ceiling than the band of the band.
In our opinion, the opposite could happen, what would leave our very divorced prognosis of what the market average thinks, with a more lying dollar on the band of the band, something that many do not encourage to forecast, or are far from believing in the government’s economic policy.
Conclusions
If the market carries the dollar price to the band’s floor, we would have a significant drop in the value of the dollar, which probably brings with it a strong drop in prices, this occurs with an inflation projection of 26.3% and a devaluation rate of 17.7% annual.
We believe that the dollar one year will be closer to the floor, than from the average of the bands that would be $ 1,232.
A decrease in the price of the dollar would attempt against the yields of the bonds nominated in dollars, while spoling the rise to the bonds nominated in pesos.
Investors must analyze that they want to measure their portfolio, whether in dollars or pesos. If they measure it in dollars, they should buy sovereign bonds in dollars, which have an excellent performance ahead, with a country risk that could be located around 450 points.
If the investments are measured in pesos, it will have to be analyzed buying bonds in pesos, from the long part of the curve, any compression of fees will leave an important benefit to those positioned in these titles.
The actions quote mostly abroad, where they do a large part of the volume. If this investment in dollars, you will have an excellent result, but in pesos they will not have a great performance.
It is very difficult to position itself in a market, where the dollar has ahead of the possibility of an additional decline of 12%, in fixed period pesos they offer you a rate of 34.5%, and the inflation expected by the average market is located in 26%per year.
From our point of view, we enter the era of weight, therefore investments should be made in this currency, the government is evaluating the possibility of issuing a bonus Linked pesos, a bonus that is bought in dollars and pays in pesos. We are traveling the era of weight, the currency that everyone wants, and the one that makes you earn by measuring investments in pesos and dollars.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
