The proportion anticipated by a recession fell abruptly from 42% – his highest point in two years – practically zero.
The possibility of a Global recession moves away from the radar center of the great international investors. A new survey between European fund managers shows a significant improvement in economic expectations, driven by distension signals in commercial tensions between the United States and China, and a climate of greater optimism in Europe.
The survey, conducted by Bank of America between May 2 and 8, reflects that 59% of respondents expect a global economic slowdown in the next 12 months, compared to 82% of the previous month. The proportion anticipated by a recession fell abruptly from 42% – his highest point in two years – practically zero.
He New consensus among investors now points to a “soft landing”that is, a moderation of growth without a pronounced fall of the activity. This represents a substantial turn with respect to the “hard landing” scenario that dominated the projections just weeks ago.
Although the survey was prior to the announcement of a key agreement between Washington and Beijing, Bofa analysts warn that there could be even more margin to improve global growth perspectives. The pact, announced on Monday, contemplates a substantial reduction and for 90 days of the tariffs that both powers had imposed on their imports. The United States will decrease its rates from 145% to 30% for Chinese goods, while China will reduce 125% to 10% levies on US products.
The US economy grew 3% year -on -year in the second quarter
Goldman Sachs raised his GDP growth estimate for the US
Commercial distension also hit the forecasts of investment banks. Goldman Sachs, in case, cut its probability of recession in the United States from 45% to 35%, and It raised its GDP growth estimate by 2025 at half a percentage point, to a quarterly rhythm of 1%.
The firm also adjusted its prognosis on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve: now projects a single rate cut in December – in place of three throughout the year -, followed by two additional cuts in March and June 2026. As explained Goldman, “”The justification of the cuts is transferred from the insurance to normalization ”, in a context of greater resilience of growth and less urgency of monetary stimulus.
In Europe, expectations also turn up. Investors expect growth to accelerate in the coming months, encouraged by the commercial rebound and the possible increase in public spending in Germany. In addition, 28% of managers see margin to reduce inflation in the region. In that climate, andl 59% anticipate a rise in European shares, compared to 51% of the previous month, and 35% already raising that market in their portfolioswhile 38% infrants the United States – the highest level in two years.
Source: Ambito
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