He market He does not believe the government. However, there are reasons to think that the government can be right, and give a positive surprise to investors.
He market expectation survey (REM) is waiting for the next 12 months a inflation of 25.9% annual, and only by October of the year 2025 sees an inflation rate by drilling the 2.0% monthly, placing it in 1.9% monthly.
The measured equilibrium rate between bonds that adjust for inflation and letters or bonds that adjust by annual nominal rate, give an expected inflation result around 1.8% monthly for the second semester.
We consider highly probable, that for the second semester inflation rates could be much lower than those projected by the REM and the rates that arise from the daily contribution of the bonds.
The implicit rate of the future dollar in the longest positions, are also located around 1.9% monthly, however, the systematic offer of dollars in that market is reducing the price of the wholesale dollar in the short position. The wholesale dollar hills on Friday at $ 1,113.58, falling 5% so far in May, rises 3.7% compared to the month of March, and increases 7.9% since December of the year 2024 to date.
If in April inflation would be 2.5%, the accumulated inflation in the first 4 months of the year would be 11.4%, while the official dollar in the same period increased 13.5%.
For May we have a 5% decrease in the exchange rate, and could go deeper over the days, this leads me to think that the price rise for the rest of the year is not as they have been planning from different consultants, or from what arises from market contributions.
Market consequences
A decrease in the wholesale dollar contributions could result in a drop in economy prices, since many products have imported components. This could lead to the bonds in pesos that adjust by CER or nominal rate to compress their return rates, and give rise to a capital gain.
A decrease in the inflation rate, added to a decrease in the exchange rate, could result in an improvement in the business results of contributing companies, with which the Actions They could have a substantial improvement in prices.
Finally, the country risk It could lower, product of a position taking over bonds in dollars that are quoted in the market.
In summary, the decline in the wholesale exchange rate that impacts the price of imports could be the kick that gives rise to a sustained decline in inflation in the second semester.
The drop in the inflation rate will impact on the interest rate, and would boost the rise to the bonds nominated in pesos, which would drag the bonds in dollars, and leave as corollary a strong decline in the country risk. In this context, actions should have a very interesting rise.
Conclusion
We can be facing a strong rise in markets, since most analysts, according to the forecasts of market expectations survey, do not see that the dollar is held on the lower band, and that inflation yields. If the opposite occurs, there will be a very fast adjustment to the rise in bond contributions in pesos, dollars and shares.
When these concealed visions occur, if the vision of a decrease in the inflation rate is correct, we will be in front of a very abrupt rise to the rise in the markets.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
