Although these are legislative elections, the Government seeks to validate the vote of the population towards management. Within that framework, analysts put the focus on the dollar after the exit of the exchange rate.
As the month of national legislative elections approaches, market forecasts begin to collect more political and economic relevance. According to the last survey of market expectations (REM) published by the Central Bank, the ten most precise analysts – known as the Top 10– They estimate that Average wholesale exchange rate will be $ 1,276 per dollar in October 2025month in which the government of Javier Milei will seek to revalidate his economic direction at the polls.
This projected value represents a stage of progressive devaluation, without abrupt jumps, and is located below the general consensus of the REM, which reinforces the expectation of a exchange path content for the electoral process.
From May to October, Top 10 analysts foresee a gradual rise in the dollar: $ 1,158 in May, $ 1,181 in June, $ 1,204 in July, $ 1,228 in August and $ 1,252 in September. The estimated peak coincides with the electoral month, where the exchange rate would reach $ 1,276, in a context of strong market attention to any political signal or prosecutor that arises during the campaign.
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Projections for 2026
In addition, the best forecast estimates that the average exchange rate in 2026 will be $ 1,569 per dollarwhich would imply an increase of 18.7% compared to December 2025. The data suggests that the market anticipates continuity in the devaluation, although with a slower pace than that observed in previous years.
The expected monthly variations for the dollar would remain within a limited range, between 1.9% and 2.2% monthlywith a slight acceleration towards the end of the year. This dynamic is below the inflation estimated by the ReM participants themselves, which would imply a real exchange rateconsisting with a scheme of exchange rate administered.
How inflation will be in the election period
According to the last survey of market expectations (REM) published by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), the most precise analysts, known as the “Top 10”, project that monthly inflation for October 2025 will be 2.1%. This estimate is framed in a context of inflationary deceleration, with expected year -on -year inflation of 23.2% for December 2025.
Source: Ambito
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