Gordon Gekko: A cessation of hostilities was agreed, which is the prelude to lasting peace. But, it was shown that the state of war was very harmful to all parties, and it is clear that there was rapid consensus to drastically lower the voltage.
Q.: President Trump was the one who thought and promoted the commercial war. He began, he chose the moment to taste, gave him shape and conditions, and printed him very intensity. In the chicken game, it was also the one who reculled first. Or am I wrong?
GG: It is so. It was the one who believed he had more to win and who then discovered that he could lose everything. And it did not take long to realize the Garrafal error.
Q.: Fortunately.
GG: Trump reacted as a businessman does, not as a politician.
Q.: How is that?
GG: He reacted as a businessman when he does a bad business. He canceled it. He didn’t care much what he had said the day before in his favor.
Q.: But tariffs are still very high. And formal agreement, what is said a written document with a signed text, there is none. It is a truce of word. In principle, only with Great Britain and with China.
GG: It reaches and left over to see the rush of the withdrawal. It’s true, Trump did not completely cancel the business. If he resigned it. He shrinks it to the level that seems profitable.
Q.: Let’s say impose 10% tariff for everyone.
GG: Yes. Let us remember that the world does not pay, but the companies and consumers of the United States.
Q.: And how much for China? 30%? He had said 80% immediately before the Geneva meeting, as if it were a great concession, and promised 60% in the campaign.
GG: Until the declaration of an agreement with China said 30% had no confirmation of Beijing. There the agreement was endorsed, the shared narrative arose there.
Q.: A sign that Trump had to go back to negotiate the truce.
GG: Everything that needed. The initiative always had Trump. It is evident. He armed that great counter -family festival that was the day of liberation on April 2. And he, a week later, was the one who decided to put the “reciprocal” tariffs in the “freezer.” His offensive came there. There, the trade revolution was exhausted. Everything else was to consent to reverse with more or less subtlety. And in the last week it was done at full speed. It was not Starmer, the British premier, or Xi Jinping who accelerated the dissemination to the hurried of these agreements that are still under construction. Although everyone serves, without a doubt.
Q.: Why hurry?
GG: Because the costs of paralyzing trade, if one runs out of inventories for the economy to work, they grow exponentially. And it is recorded that there was a great preventive accumulation of stocks in the first quarter, and we did not cross that point. But the business pressure was huge and Trump understood.
Q.: This marks the reality of a great capitulation of the president.
GG: Very celebrated by all. Starting with himself and ending by the markets. The reverse does not have detractors, so it can be as precarious in its formal scaffolding as credible. In this way we went to the abyss. And nobody argues anymore.
Q.: Do you think the economy will save from the recession? Or is it too late?
GG: The bag was convinced that on April 9, when Trump placed reciprocal tariffs in pause mode. Notice that there the S&P 500 stopped and refrained from validating a Bear market. From there he recovered with strength. And the subsequent facts proved his intuition. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, fell with more brios, but then also followed the steps. And technological ones have just released a new Bull market with a very powerful recovery. I would say that the markets provide the most solid testimony in favor of an economy capable of overcoming this bad moment without falling into a recession.
Q.: There was a bracelet between the hard data and the soft data of the economy that also showed an admirable resistance. Isn’t it easier now than the commercial war leaves the scene?
GG: The distrust of the investor was easily reversed. What will happen to that of consumers and entrepreneurs? You have to wait for an improvement, yes. Important. Will you reach? Well, what counts is not what they feel but what they do and decide. We have not seen a fall in consumer spending. Not in the first quarter. Nor a wave of layoffs. It is true, the economy must digest a significant increase in tariffs, although the rise has been skidded. The average tariff multiplied by 4. It is a gorge path, it seems to me. But the hard data resists. That’s good. And inflation, we already saw the first numbers in April, behaves stable. The novelty is that the Fed can take action, given the withdrawal of Trump and its most toxic agenda. There nests the big difference with respect to the drag stage. “Too slow” Powell was never the problem. “Too fast” Trump, yes. Very fast to make a fierce, and very slow to correct the error. Well, Trump got in tune. At extraordinary speed. He no longer wants war. And left an adult in charge. He did not disturb his Treasury Secretary. Thus the land clears the Fed to intervene if the economy weakens. It is a key movement. I think that an optimism enables us with the helmet on.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
