Investments in the region: What are the four countries preferred by fund managers

Investments in the region: What else did the managers say?

• 43% of the participants expect the Brazilian ibvespa index to end the year above 140,000 points And below 150,000 (today it is in 139,000 after falling to 123,000 at the beginning of April), when in the previous FMS it was only 18%. The percentage of May is the highest level since it was first consulted in September 2024.
• 22% expect upward reviews for 2025, compared to only 3% of last monthbeing the highest since November 2024.
• American tariffs remain the main risk for Latin America (For more than 30% of respondents followed by China and raw materials with just over 20%), while 9% said that the commercial war could negatively affect the prices of Brazilian assets and 31% responded that for the Mexican case.
• Cash levels fell and risks increased: The proportion of investors that assume a higher than usual risk increased to 27% (compared to 6% in April and 21% of the historical average). Cash levels decreased to 6.1%, from 6.6%of the previous month (although even above the historical average of 5.3%).
• Sector positioning remains unchanged, with public services and the financial sector such as the sectors with the greatest over-publication. Raw materials (energy and materials) remain the most under-pool, followed by discretionary consumption. High quality remains the favorite strategy.
• Participants remain optimistic about the exchange market. The majority foresees a weakest dollar in 2025. 47% say that the Brazilian real will remain between 5.7 and 6 reais per dollar and another 41% say that the year will end below 5.7. The SELLIC interest rate (today at 13.25%) is expected to reach a maximum of between 14.75%and 15%. They believe it reached a maximum of 14.75%. Participants expect the rotation towards shares to occur when the SELLIC rate reaches 9%.
• Most are constructive in Brazil, Chile and Argentina: 53% say that Brazil will have superior performance in Latin America, and 22%, that Mexico. In the Andean region, most expect Chile to have superior performance where copper prices are the main risk for the Andean region. Most expect a greater improvement in assets prices in Argentina.
• 40% of investors plan to increase their allocation of shares in the next 6 monthsslightly above the historical average (38%).
• There is no consensus on whether the stimulus in China will be sufficient to boost the prices of upward raw materials in the next six months (similar to last month).
• The Royal GDP growth of Brazil will be between 1% and 2% in 2025, but for 22% in the case of Mexico it will be negative.
• Asked about how assets prices in Argentina saw during the next 6 months, most participants expect greater improvement in assets prices.
• Only between 2 and 5% of investors are taking protections before an abrupt fall of securities marketsin line with the historical average.
• 56% of the investors surveyed qualifies the liquidity conditions and the rates of the US Treasury Bonds as good or very good.