Markets: Despite the US-China Agreement, Blackrock advises caution and selectivity

For experts from the world’s largest investment fund, Blackrockthe agreement between USA and China It represents an important de -escalation from the commercial conflict and draw three conclusions. In First placeit reaffirms that the strict economic rules will define policies; in second placeit is likely that tariffs cause more contractions in the quarterly activity driven by supply, but the accumulated impact on the general activity of 2025 could be more limited; and thirdthe agreement offers an idea where the US effective tariff rate will be established.

Therefore, in his last “Weekly Market Commentary” he Blackrock Investment Institute (BII) points out that They maintain the riskmonitoring corporate profits reports to detect specific opportunities.

Tariffs: Inflation, growth and sight supply chains

As explained Glenn Purves and Wei Liel From the BII, the 90 -day cut to tariffs between the US and China shows a strict economic rule that configures policies: Supply chains cannot be restructured quickly without interruptionswhich is reflected in the explicit objective of both countries to avoid economic “dissociation.”

“We continue to believe that tariffs will increase inflation and harm growth, with effects similar to a recession in the next quarters. Profit estimates usually suffer drastic cuts when the activity collapses.”they claim.

Already, according to data from LSEGanalysts have cut the growth forecasts of the profits of the S&P 500 of the 14% in January to 8.5%a fall slightly greater than that of an average year. However, they point out, The accumulated impact on the general activity of 2025 could be more limited.

Panorama: moderate risk, selective opportunities

In relation to EEUU Average Effective Tariff Ratethey estimate that it could be around the 10%-15%a higher level than in early 2025, but a more manageable economic disruption.

Therefore, the BII maintains a positive vision of the actions of developed markets and observe that Great forces are creating select opportunities.

Gains and value chains: three key signals

“As we analyze the impact of the evolution of tariffs, we observe three key issues in the reports of the first quarter,” says:

• The transfer of production to the US with better conditions with the US has been discussed, for the first time, in all presentations of results of the first quarter to dateaccording to data from Alphasense. Some are already presenting deadlines.

• Many companies seem willing to accept greater supplies costs as supply chains adjust. The latest external estimates expect that Tariffs reduce net earnings around 5%.

• 60% of companies that update their spending plans are now below the consensus forecastscompared to 40% at the beginning of the year, but still below 71% affected by the pandemic, according to data from Bank of America and FACTSET.

However, Opportunities persist in certain sectors. Great technology, for example, are reaffirming or increasing the investment linked to AI (artificial intelligence). And the results of the first quarter show that American companies start from a strength position.

Europe and Japan: divergences and foci of interest

When investing, what does the BII like? They say Li and Purves: in Europe, Infrastructure and Defense spending plans have led us to improve European to neutral income.

However, the execution of these plans is key, and The limited support of the new German Chancellor to the coalition highlights possible obstacles. The index Stoxx 600 European has had a performance practically similar to that of the S&P 500 From the announcement of tariffs last April 2, and Estimates of European benefits by 2025 have fallen to 3.5% from January 8%.

“However, this masks the divergence. The financial sector has risen more than 20% this year, thanks to the high persistent yields and the solid balances of companies and homes. We have preferred Spain since the beginning of 2025 due to its solid growth and its exposure to the financial sector, public services and infrastructure, sectors that benefit from mega-force. Spanish actions are also less exposed to tariffs Americans: Only 5% of their exports are directed to the US, a figure below the EU average, as shown by commercial data.

The Japanese Variable Income offers another positive point: The current corporate reforms keep us over-pointed out without exchange coverage.

Gold gains prominence against traditional shelters

But also Structural changes require selectivity in other asset classesthey warn Lie and Purves. Since last April 2, Gold has been a better shock absorber against geopolitical risks than other traditional shelter assets.

He has shotwhile The long -term US treasure bonds and the dollar have fallen, unusually, together with the sharesaccording to data from Bloomberg.

With the new regulation, American banks can soon consider gold as a high quality asset in their balances. This could boost demand and turn gold into a key investment.

Final message: between resilience and global transformation

What is the final message?: We keep seeing supply interruptions that drive inflation and affect growthbut also a way to avoid a contraction in the US in 2025.

The Great forceshe greater fiscal expense and the higher interest rates They drive Selected opportunities.

“We believe that persistent inflation will make the Fed significantly cut interest rates this year, since it faces an increasingly complex dilemma between protecting growth and controlling inflation,” indicate.

For now, they advise remain selective As the commercial conflict cools, and see that Tariffs cause new contractions in quarterly activitybut The accumulated impact could be more limitedgiving rise to opportunities from great forces (are great structural changes that affect the current and future investment, modify the perspectives of long -term growth and inflation and are intended to generate great changes in the profitability of economies and sectors).

It is worth remembering that for the Biithe five great forces are:

• Demographic divergence,

• Digital disruption and ia,

• A fragmented world,

• The future of finance and

• The low carbon transition.