“Mattress dollars”: for the market the measure can help add reservations, but with a limited reach

From the government they work intensely in the small print of a new regulation that will become one of the most anticipated ads this week by the City: The new scheme that will allow The free use of dollars without the overload that implies explanations about the origins. Thus, various experts anticipated that although these changes They could help increase deposits in that currency, something that would increase reserves, They warn that Its scope could be limited by the electoral context.

In recent days it was the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, who used an example to explain how current regulations are by counting A case of an entrepreneur who wanted to transfer $ 750,000 to his wife and asked for justification of funds. It is that, so far, if a person wishes to perform an operation with foreign exchange and the bank considers that the origin of the money is not based, The entity is obliged to make an suspicious operation report (ROS) before the authorities.

“You will be able to use the dollars quietly and nobody would have to ask for explanations of anything. You can use the dollars without leaving your fingers marked.”explained the president Javier Milei in journalistic statements made this week. Along the same lines, the director of the Central Bank, Federico Furiasehe indicated that this scheme to channel unchanged dollars to the formal circuit, It will be key to the remuneration and sustain growth without emission and with fiscal surplus.

Dollars: what will the new regulations be

So far it is known that The GAFI directives will be followed, International Financial Action Group, which seeks to combat money laundering and financing from terrorist groups. It was also reported that they intervened in their preparation The Ministry of Economy, the Central Bank, the Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA) and different legal areas of the Government.

“It would be a kind of relaxation in ark controls for operations up to a certain amount that would be $ 100,000“He said to Scopethe tax lawyer Diego Fragawho believes that They will be suppressed or elevated for the general regimeswhich are the systems in which banks, among other agents, send data to the treasury. “I assume that they will also present a bill to give greater legal certainty to this system”broad.

The City is anticipated and evaluated the pro and cons

“I think it can be positive to increase the circulation speed of the dollar in the local square and Incorporate flows of dollars that do not necessarily have a criminal originand that in no civilized country constitute any crime, to the formal circuit of the economy in a simplified way for the citizen on foot that does not have a great financial sophistication, as happened with the counters that were incorporated into the sophisticated laundering regimes like last year, “he told him to Scope Alejandro Bianchifounder of adviceinversiones.com.

For the expert this new measure will be targeted people who historically covered themselves that the State did not confiscate the fruit of their savings And, without knowing the measures yet, but depending on what they were advancing, I could now use those funds to buy a vehicle in dollar installments, or deposit it in a bank or Alyc to invest it.

Regarding the benefits for the national state that could generate this measure, according to Bianchi, is that of Increase the amount of dollar deposits of the economy, which will lead to an increase in reserves, and even the possibility of opening the internal refinancing window in dollars. But for this to happen, the result should be “very successful.” “Probably for this to happen, several articles from the Criminal Criminal Law”he said.

For its part, Diego Martínez BurzacoCountry manager of INVIUalso in talk with this medium, analyzed the positive side of this measure: “Everything that involves establishing the necessary measures so that the economy is reconnected with money that is not being considered today will allow generating economic movements and activity And that, in turn, resulting in more savings and investment opportunities has a positive reception. “

But he also warned that “We must consider the level of confidence of society to use those funds”especially in An electoral yearit is already possible that the people who treasured those dollars as a shelter, “you have to see if it is with the necessary confidence to use them today.” That is to say, if they would be willing to make investment or strategic consumption decisions of non -durable goods or for daily transactions with that money.

“So, It is possible that there is a gap between the announcement of the measures and that necessary confidence arises so that it begins to capture at the circulation level of those dollars and that generate activity. It may also be that there is an impact within a shorter period than we suppose, “he extended to this medium, Martínez Burzaco.

“Part of the dollars below the mattress will enter the financial circuit, which will help to increase the reservations because there will be more offer of dollars and probably collaborate downward with the exchange rate. I believe that the dollar these these weeks will be very calm between the liquidation of agriculture and you have this bleaching effect. I believe that it will be very positive or slightly positive, and that it will depend on how much money ends, “the economist told this medium Juan José Bano.

More available dollars: Where would the funds go?

Experts explained that the possibility of Enter the financial system dollars that until now they were outside the formal circuit can significantly increase available liquidity. For the analyst Gabriel Bagattini The focus will focus on the stock market, “Sovereign Bonds, Ons (negotiable obligations), Common Investment Actions and Funds (FCIS) could experience greater operated volume.”

In turn, he analyzed that greater liquidity could reduce the need to offer very high yields to capture investors, contributing to a decrease in implicit rates. And also improve the spred since “Increasing the number of participants and operations, the spreads between purchase and sale price would tend to reduce, benefiting market efficiency. “

“In addition, if they are channeled towards instruments such as Dual bonds, Cer or dollar Linkedthey could also Help the Government to finance in the local market without resorting to the BCRA reserves“Bagattini said and expanded by maintaining that the entry of informally dollarized capitals can also be translated in a greater stock market capitalization and in the diversification of the investor base.

“Small and medium savers who remain outside the market could start legally operatingexpanding the investment base. In addition, if demand grows, private companies could find more favorable conditions to issue shares or ONSrevitalizing the financing via capital market. And finally, they could Low liquidity sectors are reactivatedsuch as financial trusts, SME products or investment vehicles in real economy, “he closed.