The new title, the Bonte 2030received offers for US $1,694 million of 146 institutional investorsand the US $ 1,000 million guidelines were awarded, equivalent to $ 1,148 billion at a exchange rate of $ 1,148 per dollar.
The bonus and the high rate
“The expected rate by consultants and banks was between 22% and 27%, at most. That we are about 30% was not contemplated. At a certain point, I think that non -resident investors are putting some more electoral, political risk, in terms of credibility, “said the economist Amílcar Collante.
The economist Gabriel Caamañoof the consultant Outliercontributed a more nuanced reading about the result: “I think the rate was above what local analyzes marked, but the one that puts the price is the market. More than noise seems to me that what it indicates is that externally have Exinflation expectations and less aggressive nominality reduction than the officers and that even local and/or more uncertainty about it. The data could be that, I do not think it is something tragic or decisive due to the refusal the rate level, but it is true that it is greater than the ones that were considered. I think for now the point is that. “
Another of the most analyzed points was that the government opted for a fixed rate bonus To conquer international investors, which represents a government commitment to Measure the “trust thermometer” towards the economic policy that is carried out.
The Secretary of Finance Pablo Quirno celebrated the result of the placement when considering that “Strengthens reservations without increasing debt” and allows to expand the base of investors interested in titles in local currency. He also stressed that he contributes to extending the average period of debt in pesos. It is that the title in question expires in 2030, although it has an repurchase option guaranteed by the Treasury by 2027.
The issuance marks the return of this type of operations with Argentine legislation for abroad capitals after seven years, and is registered within the commitments assumed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to strengthen the reserves of the Central Bank.
From Delphos Investment They positively valued the country’s return to international markets, although with nuances. “While the bond attractiveness lies in part in the Prize awarded to certain foreign funds that require a premium due to illiquidity and the risk associated with the Argentine peso, we consider that the return of the country to international markets with a bonus in pesos signed by non -residents is a positive signal, even with a high rate“They said.
Placement for foreign funds and the impact on the local market
However, they warned about possible side effects in the debt market in pesos: “In the case of fixed rate bonds, the challenge is that The bonte rate could boost a curve adjustment via a exchange rate rise or for a rate of rates. Both negative scenarios for pesos positions. On the other hand, in the CER curve, the Bonte rate implies implicit inflation close to 19% annualized until 2030, notably exceeding 15% estimated by the market consensus by 2026, which could negatively affect the performance of long bonds in today’s wheel. “
For Maximiliano Suárezanalyst Capital Fortressthe broadcast leaves a mixed taste: “Yesterday’s placement has different edges. On the one hand, it marks a milestone because it marks the Back to international markets After more than seven years. But, on the other hand, the rate It was above market expectations. It is not a bad rate, but it is higher. The rate came out in line with what is appreciating the shortest weight rates curve. What happens is that what clashes with the official discourse is that, as is a five -year bonus, it should go out with a lower rate if you believe that the government will advance in the path of disinflation and stability of the exchange rate. But here the investors obviously did not want to risk anything and They have gone to a high rate that ensures a reasonable profitability. “
Suarez also pointed out that this first placement has a symbolic value: “The amount is testimonial. What they are doing is testing how much appetite is for bonds in pesos. Surely, as time passes, it will seek to increase the volume of the placements. “ The analyst ensures that the impact of this placement may be more on the fixed and global rate bonds.
Despite the repairs that some financial analysts said on the level of the validated rate, a high risk perception is not observed in the market regarding debt management in pesos by the Ministry of Economy. The general reading is that, although foreign investors demanded a “major prize” to re -enter, The result leaves an optimistic scenario for the next placementsperhaps with a lower rate than this, but according to the context of exit of a long time in which Argentina ceased to be considered by foreign investors.
Source: Ambito
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