For those who closely follow the exchange marketin recent days there was an anomaly: The Blue dollar quotes below the officer. While the wholesale exchange rate remains close to $ 1,200the informal dollar operates below that level, despite the rise on Wednesday, thus marking Six consecutive days with a negative gap.
This behavior is unusual in the Argentine market, where historically the Blue usually operates above the official exchange rate because it works as a “thermometer” of the nervousness of investors. However, with the implementation of the new exchange scheme and the offer of dollars seen in the market, andThe informal dollar is maintaining a dynamic that attracts attention.
In recent days, some of the factors that caused an increase in the officer was linked to a greater demand for imports. It is worth remembering that in the first four months of 2025, Exports increased 5.8%but Imports climbed 35.7%which shrinks the commercial surplus and pushes the exchange pressure.
On the other hand, at the end of the month, a greater demand for dollars to card cancellations either Business accounting closureswhile the first days of the month They usually activate purchases for treasurement After the collection of salaries.
In that context, for the analyst Andrés Reschini, Blue dynamics will begin to be shown with a downward trend. “Since the government has been taking measures such as money laundering, the informal sector is going to gather and increase the formal sector. The blue dollar tends to fall into volume and becomes increasingly irrelevant. We must not stop following it, but it will notice how the retail turns more to the MEP dollar or now to the official dollar. So although a lower volume in the Blue may have been noticed and these gaps are generated, they would tend to disappear and it would not be uncommon to see it in other exchange rates. “
On that point, Adcap Financial analysts mentioned something similar when referring to the dollar counted with liquidation or “CCL”: “The CCL loses relevance especially within the bands. However, if, in case of an increase in risk (for example, for greater international volatility), the exchange rate will reach the band’s ceiling, the Central Bank should intervene the official exchange rate selling dollars. If the amount of dollars will be limited to a certain daily amount, it is possible that a potential “daily limit” generates that a more relevant exchange gap reappears, “they said.
Returning to the original theme, Reschini said that although the bonus can generate a greater demand in the officer – due to the effect of companies selling dollars to get pesos – it ruled out that tensions are generated that cause concern. “Today we have the yields of the curve pesos above the futures, so that is a bit firewater for the exchange rate And in addition the inflationary perspectives are improving beyond an interest for the elections, I do not imagine a dollar climbing uncontrolled. “
The operator Gustavo Ber, He stated that this negative gap and the dollar above the officer can be given by seasonality, and that “once sales loosen for the needs of the agents, the Blue should be located again above the officer.”
Finally, looking forward, Ber assured that the bonus effect can generate greater private demand, but the supply of the field and the “Carry” They will be enough to stabilize the dollar near $ 1,200.
Source: Ambito
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