About this, Lara CastletonDirector of Portfolio Strategy at Janus Henderson Comment in dialogue with Scope That, the Personal Consumer Expenses Index (PCE, English) of the Fed that was known this Friday remained in line with market expectations, “which indicates a continuous moderation of inflation.” And it is that the general PCE rose an intermensual 0.1% and 2.1% year -on -year, while the underlying PCE rose 0.1% and 2.5% per year, both modest declines with respect to previous readings And very close to the objective of 2% of the Federal Reserve.
In March, the cars led the contribution to household spending; In April, on the other hand, it was the services – livestock, health care and food services – that took over as the most relevant items. “However, as the new tariffs begin to be reflected in the prices of goods, this initial moderation in the expense expectations in products could be reversed,” Caston warns. The combination of this tariff uncertainty and the persistent rigidity of services prices “It will probably lead Fed to show Cauta before considering a type cut at its June meeting“He concludes.
The semester of Wall Street
Marcelo LezcanoPresident of CatalaxyGlobal investment agency, points out in dialogue with Scope That, after the remarkable recovery of May, it provides for an “featuring” of the US market during June, with a more contained volatility. However, he assures them that tax imbalances persist: “The deficit and the high debt have public finances. Faced with this, the Trump government only has three outputs: Increase taxes (already applied measure), cut the expense (without clear implementation signals) or allow a new devaluation of the dollar “That already accumulates a 9% setback against its main counterparts since the beginning of the year.
For its part, Milo Farro, Analyst in Bursatile Ravaremember that, during the first five months of the year, the American variable income lived an extreme volatility. “After the 2024 closing rally promoted by Trump’s electoral victory, the actions starred in their first more negative quarter since 1973, weighed with the uncertainty about commercial policy.”
The strategist emphasizes that, after Trump’s announcement of April 9 about the suspension of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days and the absence of shocks in the corporate results season, the losses were dissipated: “The S&P 500 recovered its territory completely and returned to the levels with which the year started,” says Farro.
Meanwhile, Balanz Capital, In his latest report, he comments: “The recent commercial agreement between the US and China, together with the growing optimism for a possible covenant between Washington and the European Union, promoted the global variable income rally “. In the last month, all share rates recountedwith special force in the most punished sectors for 2025. Technology, discretionary consumption and communications – which group the “seven magnificent” – led the rises in the US, with advances of 11.8%, 10%and 9.8%, respectively.
After the rebound of 7% of the S&P 500 in the same period, its price/profits ratio (p/e) is located in 21.2x, more than a standard deviation above its historical average of 16.5x. “This reinforces our recommendation to prioritize assets with less tight values”, The City broker says. At the close of the balance season of the first quarter of 2025 in the US, the surprise was positive: “The profits grew by 13.2 % interannual, above the initial expectations,” he adds.
“I sold May and Andate”
The saying “I sold in May and Andate” charges new vigor this year, Since historically the summer months in the US –from the day memorial to the day- They usually register discrete yields, around 1.8 % average since the 70s. However, the market has only noted losses in June once in the last decade, which introduces one more element of uncertainty: will the exception or the market repeat a market will repeat a correctional June after the frenzy of the month that ends?
Farro comments in this regard that, with June just around the corner, “a historically weak month under the adage” Sell in May and get out “, the S&P 500 quotes just 4% of its historical record and in multiples higher than its quinquenal and decenal stockings.” Inverters have their eyes on three key risks:
- The pulse between Trump and the Judiciary for the constitutionality of the tariffs.
- The caution of the Federal Reserve before contemplating feat cuts,
- And the incipient deceleration of economic activity, caused by persistent uncertainty.
The winning sectors of the first five months of 2025
Lezcano He maintains that the sectors that had the best performance since the start of the year were: The industrial one with an average yield of 8% and public services companies along the same lines. Meanwhile, companies linked to stable consumption and financial services showed yields around 5%. “You can also highlight the communications item, the real estate sector and the basic materials, which showed yields between 4% and 2% respectively,” says the analyst.
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Farro, meanwhile, indicates in line with Lezcano that, as is usually the case in uncertainty contexts, “the two winning sectors were Public services and defensive consumptionboth showed an increase of 8% in dollars so far from 2025. On the other hand, the technological sector, the great star of the preceding two years, accumulates a 2% drop in the same period, “he says.
The sectors to follow in the coming months
Lezcano marks that the product of the weakening of the dollar, sees potential in the precious materials and metal sector. In that sense, he comments that copper today lies at maximums in the international market on US $ 4,64 per pound. Also so, gold is at maximum US $ 345. This implies an important harvest for those who are positioned in mining companies such as Río Tinto (copper) or Barrick Gold (gold). “
For its part, Farro recommends diversification through ETF and the possession of a certain percentage of liquidity in the portfolio, because according to their analysis, they position themselves as “the main tools against this context.”
From Capital Balanz They ensure in their monthly report that the US stock market showed a prominent performance for 2024, supported by economic resilience and solid corporate results in several sectors. However, “current, high valuations compared to their historical averages, along with a new more uncertain global context, increase market volatility.”
And he warns: “Faced with this scenario, we maintain a neutral posture, we prioritize selective exposure in defensive sectors and companies with models of solid and sustainable business“
Thus, with high valuations, little demand for coverage and the proximity of milestones that traditionally generate turbulence, The common denominator among strategists is prudence. Investors would be well advised if they consider covering part of their recent profits or, at least, adopting a more conservative approach for a month that is possibly the counterpoint to a May to full machine.
Source: Ambito
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