It ends May and in the local economic front there are news that could change the strategies Recommended for June for the main brokers of the country. Is that, on the one hand, the government issued the Bonte 2030which implies the first step towards international financial reintegration, and on the other hand, follows the bet For Argentines to enter the financial system “savings” after the limitation of controls by the ark.
In addition, the market monitors the evolution of the flotation of the dollar, the inflation expected in Mayand the international context of the hand of the Tariff war imposed by Donald Trump.
Regarding the Variable rentexperts argue that in This last week there was a negative impact of bank balances, which led to the S&P Merval in dollars to pierce the 2,000 points and mark a loss of 18% since the last maximum. “The 2024 rally was based on credit expanding, which still did not arrive. NIMS (net interest margins – net of net interest) and roes (return on equity – profitability on net worth) projected between 8% and 15% do not justify current multiples,” they explained from Invest in Bag (IEB). That is why one of the first recommendations is Limit investment in bank roles.
In it Rebalance of Walletsfrom this broker, they argue that “The main change is to reduce exposure to banks from 35% to 25% And, within said sector, concentrate on Galicia Financial Group (Ggal): With a franchise that is a leader in all segments: banking, insurance, credit cards and manager of common investment funds. ” This role was assigned 15%, already BBVA Argentina, 10%.
“The 10% that we remove the banking sector is distributed as follows: 5% we assign it to IRSAand the remaining 5% will swell the regulated sector; which goes from 20% to 25%. There, we keep a Port Central (CEPU) With 10%, but we increase exposure in ECOGAS Investor (ECOG) and Northern Gas Transporter to 7.5% in each case. The material sector and Oil & Gas We keep it unchanged, “they explained since Bróker.
The market looks two goals: elections and country risk
“While the ratios to those who quote most assets They no longer allow us to assume ambitious objectives, the selectivity will be key. A good rElectoral and a country risk Below 500 basic points would generate that the market begins to validate growth in the value and possibly live another bullish rally similar to the one that occurred with Trump’s victory in November 2024, “they explained since Cohen financial alliesas you see the variable income in the short term.
Within that selectivity the suggestion is towards Pampa Energysince in addition to the good ranges of Ebitda, the development of Rincón de Aranda to produce oil, its 20% participation in Southern Energy to export GNL from Río Negro, the expansion of the local demand for gas and the synergies derived from the modifications in the electricity generation market that are coming from November will be the engines that explain this leap, explained from the same report.
In addition, they put their eye on Bymasince according to them, “it has been showing great growth in the volume operated both of fixed and variable income as well as money and derivatives, which allows us US $ 1,420 million “.
last, they added that Northern Gas Transporteralthough “it seems attractive to us, but given the strong experience experienced, we suggest taking profit. As far as Yields, Vista, Tenaris and Ternium “They continue to like us, due to the prospects of these papers in each of the sectors and the ratios they quote.”
FIXED INCOME STRATEGIES: How to put together a competitive portfolio in June
From CMA CapitalThey say that, thinking for the future, The next great driver will be the electoral results that the ruling party obtains in the legislative electionsboth in the different provinces and in the nationals of October. For now, the results so far have been auspicious for the ruling party, mainly in the victory obtained in the city of Buenos Aires.
“In terms of strategy, this new scenario significantly improves the sovereign debt of the country. While, the possibility that the bonds continue to capitalize precisely if the good electoral results are given and the peace of mind with the new scheme of the exchange rate is maintained, in addition to the recent improvements in the country’s credit qualification,” they explained. In terms of “hard dollar”, Bonar 2030 is “the most attractive for its rapid repayment”, They described.
In addition, they specified that The Global 2035 In the long part “it remains one of the alternatives of greatest ´UPSIDE´ to bet on a higher loss of country risk, if volatility is tolerated.” “Meanwhile, the BOPREALES are the most appropriate titles for those who seek Less volatilityand in that sense We like Bopreal 2026, as a conservative alternative“They described.
“For dollar strategies, we maintain our preference for the long section of the sovereign bond curve. In particular, we are inclined to the Bonar 2035 (11.2% IRR) and the Global 2041 (11.1% IRR), for their ability to capture the greatest potential ´UPSIDE in a scenario of country risk fall below 500 points on the one year horizon. At current prices, the potential return of the first round 25%, while for the second it is 23.1%”, They described from Cohen.
However, they stressed that they still persist Challenges ahead so that the country risk continues with the downward trend registered in 2024. “Although the triumph of the ruling party in Buenos Aires legislatures is an encouraging indicator for October, accumulation of reservations For 2025 it is still a question, “they closed.
Source: Ambito
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