Ok. That day was one of those that lightly the media and unforeseen investors and intermediaries like to call “a black Tuesday” (Trump had announced that he would apply to imports from China an additional 50% tariff -after later, in something typical of him declared an impasse tariff for 90 days-).
There were still a few days to know the March inflation data, but somehow it seemed like the financial market anticipated the Brutal 3.7% that INDEC announced on Friday 11.
To worse, despite the fact that from the government they had been doing the impossible to try to neutralize any adverse opinion, it was clear that negotiations with the IMF seemed increasingly bogged down, and the money that was supposed to be necessary for some time closer to the elections, it was specified.
The truth is that Milei and his people, very calm were not and the “potatoes more than burned.”
If the mountain does not come to Muhammad ….
The IMF did not give in, so they ended up yielding them. For now, they had to accept the replacement of the “Crawling Peg” – which we were sincere, it had become a lead lifeguard – by a mechanism of exchange bands, committing to increase the reserves and other minute that until then were resisted to “iron and fire”.
It is not that neither those in the background nor they believe in these promises, but the forms matter and had to save them.
Things rushed then for the better. It was agreed with the agency, the international situation -lucky -improved and a good communication strategy and the use of the “friends” -as so far they have proven to know how to get out of the atoles (an eye that once the luck ends) gave it a 180 -degree turn of the Malhumor of the market.
The bad languages, always present
According to bad languages -some very close to the ruling party – In a master play they had let the “things run” to press the background.
The scheme, the classic: silver was needed and the lender was reluctant, so the prices of assets had been yielding naturally, especially after the rally. The most related “players” were given the wink to begin to manipulate them – to prices – under any reasonableness.
There began the repurchases – disappointed to the retail to do it – and the pressure to the borrower who, before fear of the market was seeing something that he did not and the entire scheme collapsed, eventually yielded. Upon the good news, the prices “flew” and those who had bought “down” sold “up” filled their pockets.
All happy, the one who needed the silver, his friends and the lender who saw how the market validated their actions … all but those who were “induced” to sell already later to “buy” more expensive. Eye, the maneuver can be, or not -especially for a bilardist -illegal. What is sure is immoral.
And the party arrived! … But did it arrive?
Anyway, on April 15, the S&P Merval climbed 15% in pesos (from the 8th); On the 21st, the ticket collapsed in the street also 15% and on the 23rd of the same month, the country risk fell below 700 bp and the Merval in dollars 26%.
The salvage operation had been successful and the Government won the press to the market, it is that there was such a bracelet.
Of those maximum – at Friday 30 – the Merval in dollars earns 4.4% (in 37 days) and yields 0.8% in pesos (in 44 days), the risk fell 4% (in 44 days) and the ticket advanced 3% (in 39 days).
From 15 emerging markets+Fronteizos earn 8.1%, according to MSCI and 5.6% people from 23, Latin Americans 8.8% and 2.9% and 5.6%, and border, 6.2% and 6.3% respectively.
According to the EMBI Latam, the risk in the region was reduced 5.7% and according to the EMBIG 6.5% since 23. El Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US currency against the basket of the main currencies practically did not move since 21 (the Chilean weight, the Mexican -this is the most affected by the recent choice of the judges -, and the real one, had variations less than 1%).
The question
Appealing to all its weapons and ammunition, the government was able to save what in early April aimed to be a critical situation. In the end they achieved the support of the IMF, Trump, the market and “tutti i fiocchi”, which is undoubtedly meritorious, and continue to cover two -handed holes, by force of audacity and courage.
But more than congratular, what corresponds here is a single question: Why, after the strong process of recovery of assets, the feeling of the market did not become (more) positive?
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
