The S&P Merval actions collapsed up to 7%, although the bonds resisted the global tension

Argentine actions closed with strong casualties this Monday, July 2, dragged by an adverse global climate after a new chapter in the commercial war between the US and China. The tension climbed again after Beijing accused Washington of Break the 90 -day commercial truce. The replica did not wait: the US president, Donald Trump, said it was Beijing who “totally violated” the agreement. In contrastthe dollar bonds showed greater resilience and managed to resist the external shaking, despite the increase in risk aversion.

The declaration of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce Coronó A tense weekend in relations between the US and Chinawhich also included a speech by the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegsethin which he assured that China “Seeks to become a hegemonic power in Asia”.

Faced with this situation, the S&P Merval lost 3.2% a 2,206,291,24 basic points. Within that framework, the roles that fell most were those of Silver Commercial Society(-7.1%), Bank of Securities(-6.6%), and Metrogas (-5.9%).

For its part, the ADRS They closed with a majority on Wall Street. The main falls were for BBVA Bank and Port Centralwith 4%, and 3.8%, respectively, while the only increases were for IRSA and Telecom0.3% and 0.1%, in that order.

By June, the government expects to receive US $ 6,100 million of multilateral organizations and a repo loan. This figure clarifies previous rumors of US $20,000 million. The director of Central Bank (BCRA) and advisor to the Ministry of Economy, Federico Furiasesaid Monday that the accumulation of reservations progresses as planned and assured that the current exchange scheme and monetary is solid. In radio statements, he explained that the goal of reaching U $50,000 million in gross reserves It is expected for late Juneand not May as Javier Milei had been said to announce phase 3.

For Ian Colombo, Gold Cocos Financial Advisor, after the strong rise of the last three weeks, which led to the S&P Merval at levels very close to its historical maximums of the beginning of the year, It is logical that the index begins to show some correction or, at least, a lateralization stage. He explained that “there is no clear driver to give the actions impulse again, as was the announcement of laundering.”

In addition, he pointed out that The global context also plays against, since international markets are close to maximums and do not have new catalysts. In that sense, Gold Cocos Financial Advisor considered that Merval “It is comfortable in this price zone, although with little upward route, and projects that in the coming months the Argentine actions will probably remain at these levels.”

Bonds and Risk Country

In fixed income, meanwhile, the sovereign debt in dollars closed mixed, although in front of the global market the strong fall resisted. The main depreciation belonged to Bonar 2035 (-0.9%) and al Bonar 2038 (-0.7%), while the increases belonged to the Global 2029 (+0.6%) and the Bonar 2029 (+0.4%).

“Another good day for the curve in pesos, with increases around 0.5% in the fixed rate. Cur Cur operated mixed. The market is still excited about an IPC data below 2% for May, as reflected in the inflation ‘Break Even’ that are already around 1.5%,” he said Nicolas Cappella IEB Group.

He Argentine country riskmeasuring JP Morgan, closed on Friday in 678 basic points.

Last week the government managed to place debt in pesos while non -resident investors delivered US $ 1000 million. “While the rate was higher than expected, the Executive Power celebrated this return to international markets that means the country’s return to the placement of private debt to roll commitments”they explained from Bell stock market.

Dollar, debt and inflation placement: what data does the City look

After this broadcast, The following days a tension was generated on the official dollar since the City evaluated that the rate granted put a higher floor for the dollar. “ Investors will receive 29.5% annually in pesos while delivering US currencies and although the term is at 2030, they have the possibility of exercising a put in 2027 before the elections, “they detailed from the same report.

“While that increase in the dollar was generated, too positively impacted the bonds, which had a rise after the news. In the last days of the week, The actions felt the return of international instability and had a cut in the value of Merval“They added from Bell.

On the other hand, after the news of this debt placement that would serve to swell the reserves of the Central Bank, the rumor began to circulate that the International Monetary Fund would postpone the review of the coffers of the entity that Santiago Bausili leads. At present, there is already a few wheels, the BCRA should be at least US $ 4,000 million above according to the goals set by the international credit agency.

This week The government will also give new details of the plan for Argentines to incorporate the dollars outside the system into the system. It is worth highlighting two weeks since the Minister of Economy, Luís Caputo reported the rise of the amounts to inform Arca in the transfers.

Finally, with the closing of May, the consultants also closed the studies on the inflation of the fifth month of the year. All are around 2% monthlybut some risk that the figure would begin with one. If so, the government would achieve a new victory in its main goal.