The placement of the Bonte 2030 left a worrying sign for the market and, in particular, a message that the government of Javier Milei I shouldn’t ignore. This was expressed by the renowned financial analyst Salvador Di Stefanoknown as the “Blue Dollar”, who warned that, despite the fact that the Ministry of Economy managed to capture US $1,000 million, the financial operation “left a bitter taste.”
“The 29.5% rate reflects that we continue with a high country risk. We still do not convince investors that Argentina is reliable for a lower risk level”He shot in his weekly report.
High rate, little enthusiasm and latent risk
For Di Stefano, the success in terms of placement does not hide the structural problem: “The rate already yields 29.9% per year, against expected inflation of 15% for next year. That gives a real annual rate of 13%, well above that offered by a bonus closed as the TX26, which pays inflation plus 9%.”
The analyst’s reading is clear: the market requires high rates because it continues to perceive a high probability of devaluation, crisis or breaches. “The Government sought to strengthen reservations to meet the IMF, but did it at a high cost that exposes international distrust,” he said.
The dollar and its “roof” difficult to break
As for the exchange rate, Di Stefano stated that the official dollar “seems to have found a roof in the $ 1,200”, although it also resists breaking the floor of the $ 1,100. “It is in a kind of limbo, far from the floor of the BCRA intervention band,” he explained.
According to its analysis, while the dollar is maintained inside the flotation band – a estimated between $ 980 and $ 1,428 – the Central Bank will not intervene. This implies that the monetary base does not expand or contract, and remains around $ 21.4 billion.
The guru also made calculations on an eventual dollarization: “If the dollar goes to $ 1,428, US $ 15,000 million is needed to dollarize. If it drops to $ 990, the economy is monetized and the interest rates would be reduced and reduced.”
Dollar Blue Cueva
Depositphotos
Fixed deadline: The surprise of the week
Di Stefano did not miss what he considers “the star of the week”: the fixed term in dollars. In contrast to what happens with bonds and actions, which “do not define a trend,” said there are banks that are paying rates of the 5% annual For 365 -day placements, well above the performance of a US Treasury letter, which today performs 4.16%.
“The National Bank was the first to move, offering up to 2.75% per year for companies. Then the Macro bank followed with a 5.15% rate to one year. They are attractive rates in a stable dollar context,” he said.
What does Guru recommend?
For the coming months, the analyst recommends maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes Fixed deadlines in dollarslook closely at the International Market and keep the DUAL BANCAP that expire in 2026, since “they are adjusted for inflation or fixed rate, which happens higher.”
Although the government managed to capture fresh dollars, the high financial cost turned on a warning light. According to Stefano, the market still does not believe fully in the economic direction of the ruling party. Meanwhile, fixed deadlines gain prominence, the dollar navigates aimlessly and the bonds are still unrelent. A diagnosis that, far from triumphalism, leaves a “bitter taste.”
Source: Ambito
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