For its part, the MEP dollar or “Stock Market” fell 0.8% (-$1.66) to $205.75. Since January 27, it exhibits a decline of 8% (-$18).
The high inflation and the low level of net reserves, at a time when the demand for foreign currency usually exceeds the supply, force the BCRA to adjust the “crawling peg”, which favors the reduction of gaps and exchange competitiveness, but it implies a risk of acceleration of inflation that already has inertia at a very high floor.
On this day the inflation data for January will be knownwhich the private sector estimated at 3.8%, according to the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the BCRA.
“The acceleration of the crawling-peg continues to arouse expectations, given that it is not only positive to avoid continuing to incubate backwardness in the face of inflation, but it would also be accompanied by an upcoming rate hike on the way to positive real yields. This strategy generates a positive reaction in the financial dollars and thus they extend the greatest calm – far from the latest highs – and on the contrary there is a greater tactical appetite towards CER titles – in the face of forecasts of still high inflation – and ¨dollar-linked¨ to capture contraction of the ¨gap¨ from bottom to top”, analyzed the economist Gustavo Ber.
Anticipating the inflation data and the movements of the Central Bank, the market requested a higher rate in the recent auction of debt in pesos from the Treasury. The Ministry of Finance ended up validating these increases and the rates for fixed-rate bills grew to the 52%/53% zone in annual and effective terms.
It is worth remembering that the participants of the REM projected an inflation of 55% for 2022. Likewise, the official dollar has already been advancing at an annual rate of over 40% and is approaching the rate of inflation.
official dollar
The wholesale dollar, which is directly regulated by the BCRA, began the day at $106.5014 cents higher than Friday’s close.
The official comes from showing its highest weekly rise in almost a year and is already advancing at a rate of more than 40% per year, although the adjustment on Monday was lower than last Monday.
The price of the “greenback” was cushioned by the inflow of “genuine” dollars from foreign sales. Within this framework, the entity led by Miguel Pesce was able to end its intervention in the official foreign exchange market with a net purchase of US$80 million, the most favorable balance in almost three months. Thus, it increased its accumulated positive result for the month to US$89 million.
Meanwhile, the savings dollar or solidarity dollar -retail plus taxes- rises 26 cents to settle at $185.08 on average.
I followed all the dollar quotes in scope.com.
The blue dollar operates stable at $215 this Monday 14 February 2022, according to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the Foreign Exchange Black Market. In this way, accumulates its fourth day without raises.
Even so, the informal dollar is still the most expensive exchange rate in the market as the CCL falls again, this time to the $212 zone.
The spread between the blue and the wholesale exchange rate, which is directly regulated by the Central Bank, falls to 101.9%, the lowest since January 17, due to the acceleration in the rate of devaluation of the official, and the greater calm that the parallel has been exhibiting after the announcement of understanding with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Source: Ambito
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