Financial conditions improved in May but banks are on yellow alert for two key variables

He Financial Conditions Index (ICF) that elaborates Econviews 33 points jumped in May and He recovered almost the entire fall of April, which had been the worst month since October 2023. The report also remarked that Banks have Less liquiditysince the two subscripts that include them are those that are in worse situation.

“Since the ICF is a monthly average, only in May incorporated The full effect of the program with the IMF In the local subscript, which rose 6 points to 32.8 units. After Trump announced a 90 -day pause in the commercial war and lowered the tariffs for China, In May the external subscript returned to positive landgoing 27 points to 19.3 units, “they said.

May vs. April: How did Trump’s tariffs influence China?

According to Econviews, April had been the worst month for external conditions since 2020even exceeding the invasion of Ukraine. It should be noted that the S&P 500 fell 12% and bounced after Trump pausara the tariffs for 90 days. In May, USA reported that she was negotiating bilateral agreements with the United Kingdom and other countries, and lowered the tariffs for China from 145 to 30%.

“The two external variables that had fallen in the area of severe stress in April, The volatility of American actions (VIX) and emerging, returned to that of moderate stress, from red to yellow in our traffic light “stood out in the report.

In the first days of June Trump folded from 25 to 50% tariffs to aluminum and steel. “There was not too much impact on world bags, but the external situation continues very unstable,” they said.

Dollars, and reservations: how went to these variables in May

The exchange rate averaged $ 1,149 during May, almost in the center of the band. “The government prevented him from going to the roof and reduced the Pass-Through of the devaluation: The two best performance variables in the local sub -ups were the gap between future dollar contracts for a month and one yearreflect that there are less devaluation expectations, and core inflation (the official data comes out on Thursday 12, but our online supermarket poll anticipates a strong decline), “they said.

At the end of May, the treasure placed a “hard weight” bonus, signed in dollars and payable in pesos. This implied that the BCRA accumulated reservations without intervening on the band of the band, a condition that President Javier Milei had set. “However, the country risk does not fall from almost 700 points, a sign that the market is still concerned that they get dollars to pay the debt,” they said and warned that Tourism numbers and exchange balance also light alerts.

Banks have less liquidity: are alarms on?

“The two variables of the local subscript that worsened between April and May were the long -term liquidity measured due to the relationship between deposits and credits, and the short, the Spread between the Badlar Rate and the Interbank Call,” Econviews revealed.

This is because, in 2025, Credit has been growing between 3-4% real per month, faster than deposits. “Banks have the option of anchoring detaching from their public titles. The treasure must continue to inject liquidity to prevent rates from rising,” they said.

In Contracharta, 8 of 10 local variables are in a comfort zone and are two more than in April. “The Merval and the exchange gap are the ones that are best in absolute terms: they had improved a lot since April 14 with the new exchange scheme, but the full effect was just captured in the May ICF. Merval fell almost 13% in the last week, so June can give slightly worse,” they concluded.

The external wind is still complex

External variables are still worse than in March. With Trump’s “Liberation Day” the subscript fell from 29.7 to -7.7 units and now bounced to 19.3. 8 of 10 variables improved compared to April but, within those that worsened, are the volatility of emerging currencies, and the yield of financial actions with respect to the whole of the S&P 500.