The Wall Street gurús expect the Fed to maintain the rates until September

The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) I would keep the interest rates without changes until September for the fear that inflation resurfaces as a result of the tariff policies implemented by Donald Trump, who initiated a Commercial War Global barely assumed his position. At least that This is what the New York Bag Gurúes expectaccording to recent specialized survey.

According to one Survey by Reuters to 105 Wall Street economists Between June 5 and 10, on average, experts believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the FED will leave the federal fund rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.50% in the short term.

Of the total, 55% of respondents considered that the US Central Bank would resume rates cuts the next quarterprobably in the ninth month of the year, in line with the evolution of futures of interest rates.

Meanwhile, 42% of economists project that There will be a reduction of rates in the fourth quarter of 2025 or laterwhile the rest predicts that there will be no cuts this year.

Fed rates and a challenging context

To understand the expectations of the main consultants, it is important to remember that most commercial negotiations between the different countries are still unresolved, when the deadline of July 9 in which the 90 -day tariff pause ends defined by Trump ends. That context leads analysts to keep caution in their economic forecasts.

At the same time, concerns about US debt increase, which is headed to US $ 240 billion while Bond emission growsdriven by a Tax Reduction Law and Fiscal Expansion Project Approved, so far, only by the House of Representatives.

In addition, recent data does not show significant deterioration of the labor market, and this indicates that Fed has no urgency to make its monetary policy more flexible.

“As long as the labor market looks good, we hope that the FOMC will remain waiting and use rhetoric to strengthen its credibility in the fight against inflation. As long as there is no cost, why indicate otherwise?” He said Jonathan Pinglechief economist for the United States in UBS.

“At the moment, the gray zone seems rather a gray area. The committee faces great uncertainty,” he added.

In this context, according to Reuters survey, market specialists do not know exactly where the rate will be at the end of 2025, but but 80% think the cycle will end in a range of between 3.75% and 4%. In comparison, Trump himself requested a range of between 3.25% and 3.50% this Friday.