Economists They considered that the new official measures announced Monday night built at the moment the possibility that the Treasury or the Central Bank intervene in the change market above the floor of the flotation band. At the same time, they indicated that the decision to eliminate the obligation to remain 6 months (parking) to the abroad capitals turns to the most risky model, being exposed to the humor of global markets.
Regarding the possibility that the Central Bank arrives in the middle of the year with the amount of RESERVAS agreed in the April agreement with the IMF some believe that the goal or others will be achieved that They could fall short although it would be a point that the organism could dispenser. However, they warn that it is going to a scheme similar to that of 2017-2018, DEpenizer of the humor of global markets.
They signed it Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Foundation Freedom and Progress; Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, Chief economist of Balances and Leonardo Anzalone, Director of Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC).
Marí stood out as very positive The adoption of the monetary aggregate control scheme that will lead to the BCRA from now on. That is, just control the money circulating. “It seems to me that they are positive because They order monetary policy quite a lot. We clearly move on to a more orderly scheme where the Central Bank puts a clear goal, ”he explained.
The Central Bank will only control aggregates
The liberal economist said that “it can be said that one of the most important parts of the scheme is that The Central Bank has ended in what would be a completely ordered scheme that is to have a single objective ”. In this regard, he added that the entity now “moves away from what was the scheme of having a central bank with many objectives.”
“Let us remember The time of the Central Bank had exchange rate objectives, interest rate, monetary aggregates, Well, now we order ourselves and have only aggregate objectives, ”he said.
On the other hand, the economist of freedom and progress said that “the doubts that was in the market that They were not buying reservations. ”
The nervous market for the lack of reservations
“That aThe market gave him some nerves. Now there is an answer for what is the treasure is going to tender every month a certain amount of bonus ”said Marí, who considered that the decision not to buy reservations within the band from the BCRA is “because the deflation was prioritized.”
Mari said that according to estimates of freedom and progress, May inflation has already perforated 2%.
For its side, Sigauut Gravina He considered that the government will try to get dollars for reservation by indebtedness. “It will sign it directly, which is basically the way to buy reservations without some way pressing the exchange market ”he explained. However, he considered that “There is a big difference if they are reservations as in this case provided. ” “That is, you are increasing the reservation, but you are also increasing your debt in pesos,” he explained. “And what is the problem? That when that money has to be paid the reserves will fall again”, warning about the new scheme of Carry Trade.
Sigaut Gravina stated that “The government’s position is that it is not worried about buying reservations for the problem that it generates issuance of pesos, but because of the pressure that can go for the dollaron the side of the exchange market. “The economist indicated that”Reservations will be accumulated, but the dollar will not be pressed. ”
However, he warned that “I It seemed good to maintain that minimum permanence, it seems prudent And above all Learning a little from the 2017-18 experience and well, it’s like they insist again on that path. ”
“It is not the same to buy reservations, genuinely accumulate, to increase by loans. Everything is returning to an increasingly financial scheme, in which to have exchange stability you need a lot of capital income, which compensates for the current account deficit ”, He added.
In that sense, he said that the economy “It will depend a lot on the humor of the financial market.”
The reservation goal will be close
Regarding the Goal with the IMF, he added that “it is not going to be fulfilled, but if you are close to the goal they can object to you less”. “The reservations are not going to buy them but you will get them,” said the economist, who said that having borrowed reservations “The exchange market can become very volatile or abrupt correction is produced.”
Meanwhile, Anzalone inHe said that for the IMF he is indistinct where the dollars would come out for reservations. “But the only thing I would tell you is that instead of asking for accumulation of reservations, I could ask for your volume of exported products.” “Accumulation reservations to pay me. How? Well, how do you want you,” said the professional, who also agreed that the least remarkable is the parking lot for external capitals. “The regulation of removing the 6 months I don’t like at all, ”he synthesized.
Source: Ambito
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