The market digests the ruling against Cristina: Adrs fell up to 6% but the bonds closed mixed

The decision of the Supreme Court to confirm the conviction to former president Cristina Kirchner -seis in prison and disqualification for life to exercise public positions- He altered the political scenario and led to the market to emphasize their expectations. Although the initial market reaction was positive, later readings warn that the implications on the electoral framework could be more complex than expected.

In that context, Titles in dollars They finished mixed this Wednesday after a three -row run streak. Thus, the greatest increases were for bonds with foreign law as the Global 2035 (+0.5%), and the Global 2029 (+0.3%). On the other hand, within what is local legislation, the one that advanced the most was the Bonar 2035 (+0.3%). Despite this, the biggest casualties were for: the Bonar 2030 (-0.5%), and the Bonar 2029 (-0.4%). He country risk came from closing on Tuesday in 655 basic points, The lowest value in a month.

Adrs and S&P Merval

Meanwhile, The ADRS They ended with losses of up to 5.7%, by IRSAfollowed by Telecom and Supervielle Groupwith 5% and 4.8% drops, respectively.

In the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the S&P Merval 1.4% fell to 2,171,272,380 points. Thus, the leading actions that lower were those of Supervielle Group (-5%), IRSA (-4.5%) and Telecom (-4.3%).

In dialogue with Scope, Rafael di Giorno, of PROPHY, analyzed the day: “It was a slightly negative For bonds and actions. There was no important impact for Cristina Kirchner’s conviction. In general, Many investors prefer free CFK and competing on the courtbut do not believe that the situation radically changes. Today the government depends a lot on itself. “

What is said in the City about the ruling against Cristina Kirchner

From Max Capital They ventured to analyze the political impact of the conviction and its possible effects on the road to the elections. “Without Cristina Kirchner on the lists, Peronism/Kirchnerism must reconfigure her leadership, in a scenario where there are no clear figures that can occupy that place. Governor Axel Kicillof arises as the strongest reference outside CFK, although her profile is perceived by much of the electorate as too inclined to the left”they evaluated from the firm.

“In the current context, A turn to the center would be a logical exit, but there is no defined leadership to face that movementand the Kirchnerism, even without CFK on the ballots, retains enough support to continue representing the majority of its electorate “they determined.

“The ruling of the Supreme Court implies A new political map that forces to unravel strategies. On the one hand, CFK’s departure represents a future opportunity for the opposition. Without the former president on the court, Peronismby far the main opposition, may be rearranged and renewed. In other words, The emergence of a new (surely more moderate) leader that challenges the ruling party in the future“They said from PPI.

And they added: “In turn, with CFK out of the political scenewe will have to see if any change in the political strategy of the government appearswho sought to polarize against Kirchnerism and nationalize all provincial elections so far. On the other hand, and with less relevance in the short term, The relationship of the ruling with the pro begins to be a questionnow that the most extreme wing of Peronism would begin to lose strength. While it still seems soon, the speech against a common political adversary tends to dissipate. “

In turn, from OutlierThey analyzed that we will have to wait for what happens on the next wheels and what the government measures contribute again. “The truth is that the judicial ruling contributed a new upward driver to a market that was orphaned in that sense. Precisely, if the Milei administration begins to add reservations, which still did not happen, depending on the set of measures announced, it could reinforce said trend and low via the risk differential to boost the activity,” they said.