With the Official dollar Around $ 1,200, the market projects a moderate rise in the coming weeks, as long as the government Keep fiscal discipline and avoid interventions that affect political and economic trust.
Averaging the month of June, the market is already beginning to analyze How could the exchange rate behave for the second semestermarked mainly by the legislative elections. However, until that moment, there are others economic variables to consider that would exert pressure on the dollar.
After the departure of the stock at the beginning of April, The official dollar ranged until $ 1,200while The MEP and the CCL backed up to the range of $ 1,192approximately. For its part, the Blue also fell to became the cheapest in the market, with a price of $ 1,180.
However, with the End of the thick harvestwhich reduces the currency offer, the situation could change slightly.
A dollar, multiple variables
“The Government on the way tried to encourage that in these first months of quite complete opening of the stocks, dollars arrived. That is why it insisted with the temporary decline of the withholdings, so it encouraged the arrival of financial capitals,” he said Martín KalosDirector of Epyca Consultores. “That implies that those dollars that now come in later.
On the other hand, we must not forget that, although several months are missing for the October legislative elections, Saver and investors are already beginning to dollarize For fear of a surprise acceleration of the exchange rate.
“Surely there will be more fluctuations to the extent that the project of the economic model of La Libertad Avanza has less support at the polls and will have less fluctuations if that economic model is in force it has more support,” said Kalos.
Nevertheless, a certain improvement in the economic situation could cushion this impact of volatility.
“In the face of the second semester, although it is true that the thick harvest ends and that reduces the foreign currency offer, the current context is different from other years. The Central Bank accumulates gross reserves by some US $ 38,500 million And the government has already announced additional mechanisms to strengthen them, including rest, new placements and facilities for the entry of investments ”, mentioned Leonardo Anzalonedirector of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC).
“In addition, the slightest monetary issuance and firmness in the fiscal anchor are helping to maintain contained expectations. If these pillars are consolidated, it is possible that the exchange market transits the second semester with greater stability, even in an electoral context. The key will be to sustain the credibility of the economic program and give signs that strive the confidence of the investors,” he added.
Dollar: Market intervened?
Given the current exchange situation, Abel CuchiettiFinancial Market Technical Analyst, projected How much could the dollar price go. “Since last week I see that the dollar points to $ 1,250. If it exceeds $ 1,200 and that trend continues, it would already have to project a new higher range, around $ 1,300 or $ 1,320,” The expert warned.
However, according to Cuchietti, The BCRA is intervening in the dollar financial marketso you cannot count on the free movement of supply and demand impact on prices. “Does the government seek to keep the dollar in a range between $ 1,140 and $ 1,200 to prevent it from being delayed if it goes too much, but also so that it does not shoot and generate negative effects on electoral and on macroeconomic variables?” He wondered Cuchietti.
Source: Ambito
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