Days not to get bored in the markets that attend stunned to an increase in global uncertainty before the Unexpected Trump-Musk novel that it still does not have the final outcome, the intensification of the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, the Social rebellion against Trump’s immigration policy in several American cities, with epicenter in Los Angeleswhich reminds the sad events of the early ’90s detonated by the Rodney King case, US trade negotiations with China, etc. And as a gold brooch, at the local level, but with regional effect and something international, Confirmation of conviction to former president Cristina Kirchner. There is no lack of ingredient.
Taking as witnesses, only three monthly meetings between the referents of the City, and even the technical missions of the IMF, and counterpoints between local money tables, it is clear that, happy with the disinflation, an issue that even in public opinion surveys people have lowered the decibels in their main concerns menu, but very nervous with what is happening in the real economy.
Even a legendary advisor to banks and companies, several times cited to Olivos by the last presidents to expose ideas and plans, did not hesitate to refer to what happened as a “Cemetery of SMEs.” There were, according to a regular manager participating in these monthly meetings, almost Consensus that after October, not only come changes in the economic program, but project an adjustment of the exchange rate before the end of the year.
In the words of a well -known economist and former official, the current real exchange rate is the one that Argentina should have once the structural reforms has been made. In this way the debate on exchange backwardness settled. He is not liking anything, the “story” that the “Toto” team wants to impose, which they consider a “Massa Austrian”in reference to the school admired by President Milei, because it does not stop intervening in the market, but under the libertarian umbrella.
Convened by one of the referents of the local market, several managers debated the last package of the “Toto”. For some a tactical turn of the BCRA and for others only bread for today. The strong interventions in the future dollar still generate counterpoints, which, according to the host, all this shows that the “Toto” is willing to do anything, in order to save the clothes, and his game called him. Everything is to accumulate reservations and soothe the IMF and international investors, at least to stabilize expectations to the elections and sustain the exchange rate and the economic plan. Consensus points to a Low of interest rates As an effect of the new monetary measures, in the short term.
As for the repurchase of “puts” they understand that it returns to the BCRA the control over monetary expansion, to which the monetary effect of the new will be added Bopreal, and the elimination of Fiscal Liquidity Letters (LEFI) They amount to almost $ 10 billion, half in private hands. The end of the Lefi forces banks to rethink how they park their liquidity and enable a greater participation of the BCRA in the secondary market of Lecaps short -term, hence a decrease in rates in the market is projected. To which the Changes in lace policy. No one hides the priority: With inflation in low, the attention revolved to the exchange stability via accumulation of reserves, controlled dollar and interest rate contained.
However, another seasoned economist and manager, questioned what the true reason for monetary changes was if so far the BCRA controlled the rate and aggregates. He explained that under a strict control scheme about the amount of pesos, set a rate and maintain it for a while it ends up expensive: by maintaining the Lefi rate the banks had a performance floor for their short -term assets, and if inflation expectations quickly adjust, as happened after the length of the stocks, the Lefi rate does not allow you to adjust the short -term LECAP in the same speed, since when the rate of LECAP is equal to that of the Lefi the banks could sell LECAP and buy Lefi.
But in addition to the resistance in LECAP rates to be adjusted downward as long as there is the Lefi, there is another reason to move the Lefi stock, and it is to boost the demand for money, regardless of what also causes a decrease in the interest rate. Since the Lefi stock is not computed in the private transactional aggregate, a way to stimulate the demand for money would be to release those weights, which for the BCRA is more profitable, since inflation expectations and exchange rate are contained.
In addition, what is more circulating implies that the rates of the deposits are going to go down, and if this happens, the rates of the loans will also lower, which results in a desired indirect effect since the demand for credit is slowing down in real terms. While there is a lot of expectation with future bond emissions in short -term dollars, in addition to the Bonte, and obvious Bopreal 4, it is speculated that short LECAPS can be a bit offered while finance offers short -term products with prize, the same as the boncaps, so that they are attractive for investors to sell dollars to buy a bonus in pesos.
Father and son, managers of a well -known family office that acts on both banks of the Río de la Plata returned from the United States after participating in the annual Pershing event insite 2025 organized by the BNM making a scale in California and arrived azorated so they saw in Los Angeles (in parallel the ruling of the court detonated piquets, demonstrations and cuts in Buenos Aires). While accustomed to Argentine riots and manifestations, especially the son did not think he saw him in the US, instead his father’s former director of an American bank in the ’80/’90 had a déjà vu of what happened in the early ’90s when a civil rebellion for the King case set the angels forcing the intervention of the National Guard and the US army of looting, riots and violence, and resonated the songs of the emblematic Hip Hop band, NWA, as “Fuck Tha Police.”
The scenarios for Milei before the conviction to Cristina
They told colleagues that in the US they were still digging the break between Trump and Musk, something that bothers Milei who for now took a neutral posture. In the US they were consulted by colleagues operating in the region on the case Cristina And under the vision of Californian financial strategists they played with some probable scenarios, one that benefits Milei and others that do not.
Let’s see. From the Californian table they imagined that the issue is never over because the legal and political battle continues and follows the debate on CFK, which is good for Milei’s electoral chances since it is guaranteed to have it as its main political opponent. On the other hand, if CFK ceases to be the center of Argentine politics and Peronism is in charge of a new leadership generation, Milei loses. The same happens if CFK transforms into an object that generates empathy especially among those who do not celebrate their arrest and end up supporting the new Peronism.
Another scenario, today perhaps unthinkable but probable, is that CFK triumphantly returns as several Latin American leaders who spent a time in prison just to return via a surprising legal measure that annuls the sentence and releases it, and wins the elections.
The extremist scenario, almost gorilla, is to escape and ask for political asylum, which would be beneficial for Milei. Thus, the scenarios with CFK outside the political arena analyze abroad. In another order, they brought two very commented facts on Wall Street. One linked to Musk’s departure from the Trump administration, which, according to several of the main American newspapers, the owner of Tesla hit the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, to remember visited Argentina weeks ago.
The journalistic story that the tensions between Musk and other members of the Trump administration exploded in physical violence as was the case of Besent who, according to Trump’s advisor, Steve Bannon, the secretary of the Treasury, counteratacious in the middle of a wave of insults after leaving the Oval office, after receiving a kind of rugbistic Tackle. Trump learned and the rest is history.
The other gossip, more financial, but linked to Musk, is that the manager who succeeded in the bet on Tesla in 2021, has already changed his mind and now Gary Black sold the holdings that had left and focuses on Nvidia, for example, also finish and Amazon, and Dordash.
Source: Ambito
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