After the central bank decision to eliminate the monetary policy rate, not renewing the Lefis, and after knowing a marked deceleration of the May CPI, experts analyze how the scheme of rates will look in the local square.
Experts argue that there will be a strong rearrangement in the yields in it peso market that will be evidenced so much in fixed deadlines, as in virtual walletsand in titles in local currency, such as Lecapsand bonds Cer. It is following three key data: on the one hand, The decision of the Central Bank (BCRA) to unsubscribe Fiscal Liquidity Letters (Lefis) to its expiration which implies putting the end of the monetary policy of fees, In addition to an imminent modification of Laces and, on the other, to the May inflation fact, which gave 1.5%, the lowest level in five years.
It should be noted that Central Bank decided not to renew the Lefis, that they were in charge of remunerating idle bank balances and that were born as a replacement for the famous passive passes and the Leliqs. So, from now on, the rate offered by banks to make fixed deadlines will be determined by supply and demand, and the Dynamics between deposits and credits. In addition, the BCRA announced that it will adjust The bank lace policy, which means that, at the highest percentage of money retained as a reserve, the rates will be lower.
It is important to remember that “LEFI are letters issued by the National Treasury, with a maximum period of one year, which accrue the monetary policy rate daily currently in 29% TNA. The Central Bank defined the rate and the treasure paid it. They were conceived as a transitory instrument to replace the remunerated liabilities of the BCRA. His retirement forces banks to rethink how they park their liquidity and enable greater participation of the monetary entity in the secondary market of short -term LECAPS, ” explained Miracles GismondiEconomist and Analyst of Cohen Financial Allies.
Fixed deadlines and virtual wallets: how rates are rear
“We can foresee An important rearrangement of the scheme of interest rates and the peso market in general. With the elimination of the monetary policy rate as an anchor and the expiration of the Lefi in July, the returns will become determined by the market itself. In the short term, this could imply a transitory decrease in the yields of the fixed deadlinesalthough quickly compensated by competition between banks in an environment of greater monetary stability, “he told Scopethe economist and director of the CEPEC, Leonardo Anzalone.
For its part, the economist José Ignacio Banoit also agrees that the rates will be adjusted, at least in the short term, down nominally, but makes a clarification and incorporates an element to take into account: Inflation. “I think that The rates are going to fall above all taking into account the inflation data, which had an interesting slowdown; We would have positive real rates despite the nominal descent“, explained. The case of Virtual wallets It is different, because according to Azalone, The lace rise impacts them directly. “Therefore, a more sustained decline is expected in the yields offered”the expert highlighted.
Where will the flow of money that comes out of the Lefis go?
“One of the points left by these changes in monetary policy is that The end of the Lefis implies that there will be a lot of pesos that will go out to demand other instruments“Bano said. It should be remembered that The Lefis stock reached $ 15,433.4 million (1.9% of GDP) in May this yearwhich represents 48% of the monetary base, according to CEPEC data.
Experts agree to maintain that those Flows They will press the demand for Lecaps, Cautionsand bonds Cerso they ensure that we will see “little jump” in the prices of all these instruments, which necessarily implies that these rates will go down. “It seems to me that we are going to a period in which nominal rates will be progressively lower here in Argentina,” The Bano highlighted.
In turn, Anzalone was oriented in the benefits that this scheme change will bring: “Regarding the peso curve, The replacement of the Lefis with Lecaps with contribution in the secondary market will allow to reconstruct a more transparent and functional yield curve. This transition not only orders expectations, but also reinforces the consistency between the tax, monetary and exchange program. “
“He Immediate impact –With the disarmament of almost $ 10 billion in five weeks, on a total of Lecaps around $ 30 billion according to data as of April 2025 – it could be reflected in A rates on the systemor at least in the decision not to validate high levels. However, in the medium term, The effect would be neutral on rates, being essentially an exchange between treasure instruments“Gismondi closed.
Source: Ambito
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