At the moment, investors are waiting for events and MSCI index Wider of Asia-Pacific actions, which does not include Japan, advanced 0.9%.
He Nikkei Japanese won a 1.3% and the South Korean actions They climbed a 1.8%. The referential index of the Chinese market raised a 0.2%, After knowing that retail sales increased 6.4% in May, far exceeding forecasts, while industrial production was adjusted to expectations.
On the other hand, China’s retail sales grew in May at its fastest rate since the late 2023thanks to the fact that government subsidies promoted consumption. Analysts ask for greater political support to sustain recovery.
Retail sales increased 6.4 % last month With respect to the previous year, according to data from the National Statistics Office published on Monday, far exceeding the estimates of analysts of a 5 % growth in a reuters survey and accelerating from the growth of 5.1 % of the previous month.
This rebound in the growth of sales is a welcome breath for the second largest economy in the world, which has been fighting persistent deflation.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Monday began its two -day meeting On monetary policy, in which a good part of the analysts anticipate that they will maintain interest rates and that could slow down their reduction to buy state bonds.
European markets
European bags, after the closing of Friday in negative, began the week with slight climbs, despite the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and pending The US Federal Reserve Meeting (Fed) on interest rateswhich will be known on Wednesday.
He euro The 0.1% against the dollar, while the bag that was most revalued was that of Madrid, with the 1.8%; followed by Milan, a 1.2%; Paris, with the 0.8%; Frankfurt, with the 0.8%; and London, with the 0.3%; while the Euro Stoxx 50, index in which the most capitalization European companies contribute, the 1%.
On the other hand, the pound sterling won a 0.1% before The Monetary Policy Meeting of the Bank of Englandwhich concludes on Thursday.
It is widely expected that The Central Bank of the United Kingdom keeps the rates without changesafter its cut of 25 basic points in May, since those responsible for monetary policy have to deal with a contraction of economic growth last month and the deterioration of employment figures, but with still high inflation.
On the other hand, Norges Bank is also expected to keep the rates unchanged later in the week, while the Riksbank of Sweden cuts the rates, and the Swiss National Bank could return to negative rates given the strength of the Franco.
United States markets
The markets in the United States operated significant on Monday, with investors evaluating the recent escalation of violence in the Middle East. The attention now focuses on the decision on the interest rates of the Fed that will be announced on Wednesday, and it is widely expected that The Central Bank leaves unaltered interest rates and maintain your waiting attitude regarding future reductions in the cost of loans.
In that context, the S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 6,033.11 points, while the Dow Jones climb 0.8% to the 42,515.09 points. He Nasdaq won 1.5% to 19,701.21 units.
The market is betting that there will be virtually any possibility of reducing the type of types of the 4.25% to the 4.5% And there is not many perspectives for it to occur in July.
“The Committee (FED Mercado Federal) will publish a new set of economic forecasts, and we hope that the ‘points’ of interest rates, which the last time showed an average expectation of two cuts this year, seek instead a single cut this year,” said Michael Feroli, head of the US Economy of JP Morgan.
The markets continue to bet on two cuts before December and consider a first measure in September more likely. Data on retail sales in the United States on Tuesday will also be an obstacle, since a setback in the automobile sector could drag the main data downward, although underlying sales rise. Thursday is a holiday in the US, so on Wednesday the weekly figures of unemployment subsidy applications will be published.
The main Wall Street indices fell on Friday after a series of air attacks between Israel and Iranincreasing tensions and affecting market confidence. Defense actions rose after attacks. Petroleum prices also shot, promoting energy actions, but harming airlines that face the perspective of higher fuel costs.
Even so, relatively benign inflation readings and stable figures for weekly unemployment applications some concerns of investors relieved on the impact of broad American tariffs on economic activity.
Oil, in the eye of the storm for the conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East
Oil prices dropped a dollar on Monday, after climbing 7% on Friday, after knowing that Iran seeks the end of hostilities with Israel, which increases the possibility of a truce and relieves fears to an interruption of the supply of crude oil from the region.
The price of oil registered a gradual increase after Israel bombed nuclear and military facilities in Iran, one of the 10 largest oil producers worldwide. Although their sales are limited by Western sanctions, markets anticipated a possible reduction in supply.
In the early hours of last Friday, Oil prices came to rise more than 13%reaching levels not seen since January. Subsequently, the price was moderated, but closed with a 7%rise.
However, this Friday the futures of the Brent 97 cents went down, or 1.3%, to U $ S73.26 The barrel, while the futures of the WTI American They lost 94 cents, or 1.3%, to U $ S72.04.
How does a war affect in the Middle East to the oil supply?
An open conflict in the region could interrupt crude oil from Iran to its clients, which would maintain the high prices. In addition, analysts warn about possible blockages in the Ormuz Strait, a critical route where a third of world oil passes. Iran has threatened to close this step in response to international pressures.
If this happened, the impact on the gasoline prices and other oil derivatives would be immediate, affecting consumers and companies worldwide.
Source: Ambito
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