In addition, he points out that the recent debt issuance and loans external to the oil sector improve perspectives for exports linked actions, especially in energy. With a stable dollar and monthly inflation that could be maintained below 2%, Di Stéfano sees opportunities in variable income, especially in companies such as YPF, Vista and Pampa.
The reserves of the Central Bank climbed to US $ 38,622 million, and will rise $ 2 billion for the operation of a passive pass (Repo) at an annual rate of 8.5%. This is of high significance since Argentina continues to place debt in international markets, at a decent rate, and increasing reserves of the Central Bank.
On Thursday the inflation of the month of May was known at 1.5%, and everything presumes that in the successive months we will have an inflation rate below 2% monthly.
A group of oil companies achieved a syndicated loan of US $ 1.7 billion, which could have an interest rate less than 10% per year, for the construction of the pipeline that will go from Añelo to a red tip on the Atlantic coast that will allow us to export about 550,000 barrels day from the second semester of 2027. The companies that participate in the consortium are YPF, Pampa, Chevron, Chevron, Pan American, Pan American Pan Energy, Vista and Pluspetrol.
All this news caused the price of the official dollar to be $ 1,185.50, this implies a 14.8% increase in the year, with an estimated inflation in the first 6 months of 15%. This is great news, because we see that the dollar is increasing at a similar rate than the inflation rate.
The Government will work in financial matters to readjust the lace in the market, with a rise for deposits that correspond to the common investment funds, in this way the fixed term recovers prominence in the square, since it will be imposed against the yields that will offer virtual wallets and investment funds.
A greater amount of money that flows to the financial system could generate a decrease in the yields paid by entities. In the month of June the fixed term (TAMAR) rate used for amounts greater than $ 1 billion was 33.75% per year, while the effective rate rises to 39.5% per year. If we compare this rate with the inflation projected by our consultant that would be located in 16.5% per year, we would be facing a rate of 19.7% above inflation.
A bonus like Tx26 that adjustment for inflation and expires on November 9 of the year 2026 yields inflation plus 11%, this shows us that The fixed term rate yields much more than the bonds they adjust by CER.
If we want to project the expected devaluation, we should take the performance of the new bond in pesos with expiration in 2030 Ty30 which is 27.7% annual versus the BONO AL30 which is in dollars and yields 12.4% per year, this gives us an expected devaluation rate of 13.6%.
If we measure the effective Tamar term effective rate that is located at 39.5% per year, an expected inflation rate in 16.5% per year, and a probable devaluation rate in 13.6% per year, all conditions are given so that the investment in pesos is highly winning versus the investment proposals in weights adjusted by inflation, or the investments in foreign currency.
The copying bonds performance of the Tamar interest rate are the Dual Boncap, the TTM26 bonus that was born on January 24, 2025 with a MEP dollar that was quoted at $ 1,155.75. If we take that these titles were taken at a base value $ 100, and today they are worth $ 110.55 we estimate a 10.55%gain, while the dollar hill on Thursday at $ 1,186.51 which represents a rise of 2.6%. This implies that the Dual Boncap since its birth had a $ 7.7%dollar yield.
Conclusions
. – The BCRA is in a process of accumulation of reservations that will persist in the medium term, via debt placement, and the purchase of dollars in the middle of the intervention band when blocks of dollars destined for investment for significant amounts arrive, and that of entering the single market of changes would distort the price of the wholesale dollar.
. – This will put a transitory floor to the dollar around the current values, on the other hand, we see that from July with the return to soybeans of 33% and corn of 12%, grain settlements will decrease.
. – Since the CEPO was eliminated, we see individuals make strong purchases of dollars, in April it was $ 2,000 million, and we could have a sum higher than $ 1 billion in May, this makes the backward to the floor of the intervention band, it may take a long time to occur.
. – With a more stable dollar in current values, and with inflation descending, you have to start looking carefully at the companies that are quoted in the stock market. We go to an inflation scenario in dollars very similar to that of the United States, therefore, we do not see a marked loss of future competitiveness. This should give an opportunity to export companies to show interesting profitability.
. – A winning sector for the stability of the dollar around current values could be oil, if we add to this the geopolitical problems of the Middle East, it would give the sensation that is the time of YPF, Vista and Pampa in the market.
Source: Ambito
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