In a context where savers in pesos and dollars They are increasingly curious, the recent macroeconomic indicators of Argentina wake up a certain concern. With a commercial surplus that, although positive, shows signs of weakness, and a descendant fiscal result, the situation becomes worrying. The commercial balance has experienced a critical adjustment, and with increasing indebtedness and an alarming lack of accumulation of reservations, market actors must pay attention to the warning signals that arise. Are we facing a recession scenario? Is the lack of private dollars the cause of a commercial balance that, despite the surplus, fails to sustain? In this article, we will explore the dynamics that make up the current economic scene and what this could mean for the immediate future.
The May Commercial Balance showed a US $ 600 million surplus, which raised the accumulated commercial surplus Au $ 1,900 million. After adjusting for seasonality, the annualized commercial surplus of the last 3 months increased with respect to the previous month AU $ S4.2 billion, although it fell from the US $ 12,000 million registered in the last 12 months
The value of exports increased slightly, 0.4 % intermensual in May, while imports decreased 4.3 %. This represents a change with respect to accumulated dynamics in the year, when exports decreased by 4 % and imports increased 4.3 % compared to December levels. recession? Lack of private dollars? It should be noted that imports in value -adjusted by seasonality -increased by 37% compared to the minimum of 2024 -justified in August -, in line with the rebound of the activity. However, they remain 23% below the maximum level observed in June 2022-Government of Alberto Fernández- when domestic demand was greater.
In terms of volumes, exports increased an intermensual 9% in May, while imports remained relatively stable (-0.1%). The primarization of exports is manifest. The monthly increase in exports remains led by primary goods, which increased a monthly 23.1%, accumulating 42% in the year. Exports of industrial manufactures recovered 11.3 % intermensual, although they are still sunk compared to December 2024 (-12 %) in these 5 months. It is obvious that the increase in local costs in US dollars presses margins. Energy exports record a 38 % drop in the first 5 months of the year.
Export prices dropped 2.3 % in May, while imports increased 0.5 %. Therefore, Exchange terms have deteriorated slightly, 2.8 %.
It is essential that the sequential surplus grows in the second quarter. The Government speaks of a projection that is based on the recovery of export volumes after “the first quarter”, the growth of the import volume is decelerated by the recession and some new restrictions will be from July, after the acceleration observed in the first quarter of the year. Under these cases, the Government aspires that the commercial balance of goods converge to US $ 10,000 million for the entire year, reducing from US $ 19,000 million registered in 2024. Our projections are more gloomy, approximately 20% less, adding around US $ 8,000 million.
In May, -according to official data-; The primary balance reached a $ 1.7 billion surplus, carrying the accumulated fiscal surplus to 0.8% of GDP, compared to 1.1% of the same period of the previous year (-27.27%). The general balance registered a surplus of $ 662,000 million, accumulating a 0.3% accumulated surplus of GDP or, 0.1 percentage points below the same period of 2024. In an accumulated period of 12 months, the primary surplus reached 1.3% of GDP in May, with a general surplus of 0.2% of GDP.
Since fiscal restriction is essential for the government, it is basic that it will have to deepen the underlying fiscal dynamics. Regarding income, real tickets decreased (-13.9%) year-on-year in May (-1.5%) intermensual, semi-annual. This decrease was due to reductions in income from income and income taxes, influenced by base effects. Excluding these categories, income is 3% above average 2024, which reflects a rebound on the activity level in 2025, even so, it is still 14.2% below the 2017 levels.
As for spending, real spending decreased 1.9% year -on -year in May. In monthly terms, the primary expense was reduced 3.8% intermensual, in real terms, driven by fall in consumption (-3.2%) and collapses in capital spending (-15.2%). This decline is deepened to 4.9% compared to the average of the last three months, during which a real increase in primary expenditure was observed, mainly driven by social transfers, transfers to provinces and capital spending. In terms of levels, the expense has returned to the average levels of 2024 and is 20% below the 2017-2023 averages.
From now on Milei begins to govern with an opposition that was disjointed, and a growing social claim level. This means that fiscal restriction will depend more on the increase in income (collection) than on the decrease in spending (chainsaw), given the limited margin to make new adjustments.
As we enter the coming months of 2025, the economic team and market actors face a potentially distressing panorama. The dependence of the increase in income compared to the restriction of the expense suggests that any deviation in the projections could have consequences. The pressure on the export margins-by the increase in dollar costs-, the deterioration of the terms of exchange and the growing political and social difficulty further complicate the situation. If the most gloomy projections materialize, the months that remain until the end of the year could mark a period of tension that will directly impact investors and savers, both in pesos and dollars. The challenges are clear, and the need for an effective response becomes more pressing than ever.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
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