At first glance, it would seem that Argentina had begun to get out of the crisis. But a deeper analysis reveals that the apparent boom of consumption does not come from a generalized recovery.
How do you explain that in an economy that accumulates the fall of real salary, increase in unemployment and industrial recession, aggregate consumption shows growth? This paradox, which challenges conventional logic, has been one of the most commented and worse phenomena. At first glance, it would seem that Argentina had begun to get out of the crisis. But a deeper analysis reveals that the apparent boom of consumption does not come from a generalized recovery, but from a concentrated, fleeting and deeply unequal effect: The “wealth effect” amplified by the “Carry Trade”, stimulated by a cheap dollar that, in addition, although it allows the highest salaries to save less percentage in pesos, are more dollars; This is, however, they spend more than dollars.
Unlike what happened in previous years, the interannual comparison part of an unusually low floor; Megadevaluation and explosive inflation of the beginning of 2024 destroyed consumption in all sectors. Tell those figures compared. In that context, the technical rebound of 2025 appears inflated by the sectors that most won with the appreciation of the weight, the high rates in pesos and the dollar yield of the financial assets. The phenomenon, far from reflecting sustained reactivation, nakes the distortions of an economic model that benefits an elite while precarious to the majorities.
He Wealth effectaccording to Modigliani (1971), it is activated when agents perceive that their assets have increased, although their current income has not done so. In the Argentine case, this perception was extended by the accumulation of financial assets and financial profits calculated in dollars. The medium-high and high sectors took advantage of the Carry Trade Window; They invested in instruments in pesos with yields of three percentage annual figures in dollars, while the official exchange rate remained anchored. In recent months, with greater relative purchasing power of their surplus translated into dollars, they channeled consumption towards appliances, cars, trips abroad, imported and luxury clothing. In parallel, online purchases, with payment in installments and international courier, climb to the rhythm of the weight appreciation.
However, this “selective” consumption hides a more raw reality; The fall in the demand for essential goods, food and services by the middle-low and low classaffected by unemployment, informality and salary liquefaction. What the aggregate statistics show as growth of consumption, in reality it is a TRANSFER OF PURCHAGE POWER FROM UP TO. A Statistical illusion.
The apparent robustness of consumption finds its anchor not only in financial macroeconomy, but also in psychological and cultural factors: social networks that foster ostentation, influencers that promote luxury brands and a constant social comparison environment. The “aspirational life” shown online feeds the demand in sectors with surpluses, but also generates frustration in those who do not access that bubble.
The Government, on the other hand, attributes the phenomenon to the rise of electronic commerce and logistics improvements. However, that reading omits the central role of monetary and exchange policy; The anchor of the official dollar, financial deregulation, the policy of real positive rates in dollars and the opening of imports, have favored arbitration and current waste of dollars. Today’s consumption is, in many cases, the result of speculative bets rather than a structural improvement.
From a macroeconomic perspective, this situation raises serious risks of sustainability. If the aggregate consumption depends on the “wealth effect” generated by financial valuation and artificially low exchange rate, we are facing a problem. When the conditions of Carry Trade are exhausted -due to devaluation, repressed inflation or external instability -, the sensation of wealth will evaporate. And with it, the emerging consumption of these policies.
In conclusion, The growth of consumption in 2025 It should not be read as an economic recovery symptom, but as an unequal and transient manifestation. To start, we said that comparing this increase with the collapse of the previous year does not make economic or ethical sense. If the data is not disaggregated by income level and the causes behind consumption are contextualized, we run the risk of making political decisions based on mirages. The consumption paradox is, in fact, a warning; Argentina is not consuming because it is better, but because there was and there is a trade that produces “wealth effect” and, privileged, those who earn from $ 6 million and can save $ 1.2 million (save US $ 1,000 per month) for the appreciation of the peso-, while most survive.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
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