The Messi of Finance at the end ended up being the nine of students of Buenos Aires (as always, we apologize to the family of the Acosta tank), this week it was confirmed for the worshipers and onanists of the interest rate (and some “self -styled heterodox” that analyze the economic reality from a financial view), the data of Morgan Stanley (MSCI). These are MSCI indexes that are used as references in most markets, and reflect the evolution of the value of companies that quote on the stock market by analyzing the different risks and possible returns. But how many Argentine companies are quoted in NY? From 20 to 25; However, there are about 8,000 exporting companies, between 560,443 Argentine companies (2024), according to the data published by the Employment and Business Dynamics of the Ministry of Labor (OEDE-WORK), who confirmed that in 2024 they closed 11,143 companies. All for the economic policy of Milei-Caputo.
Although the real economy is dismantled, the financial economy also, although this is always reinvented with more debt, while having the availability and goodwill of some actors. Besides, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) -global financial information that elaborates one of the most followed stock indices in the world-, held Argentina in the market category “last Tuesday”Standalone ”, Which means that the country is still excluded from the indices composed of “Border markets” and “emerging “. That is why this week Milei had some outbursts and Luis “Toto” Caputo or on SME Day could say something about this MSCI rating. Sure: June 27 SME Day, some still wonder what happens to financing of the token £ librait seems that this is also concerned with the Executive, in front of the campaign in the province of Buenos Aires, will there be journalists to ask Espert-Milei about this irregularity incurred by the president and his presidential secretary? In the big national media, they will ask about the funds that were not finished in Bahía Blanca after the climate disaster?
Taking note that in the financial world there is little confidence in the Argentine economy, a doubt arises: will there be confidence in the horizon drawn by the government, by internal financing? He 9 Del Pincha de Caserosplaced debt in pesos for just over $ 6 billion and renewed less than 59% of maturities. One could light alerts, but explained that the dynamics responds to “Anker Point” and reflects an interest of investors to “remunerate” the economy in a context of low inflation. Let’s keep in mind that in the previous call the level was 168%, but the last one included a rise in the rate. Many doubts more weights in the street?
Let’s start by clearing some doubts; In Creole terms, the Mulc-Bcra data would give indications of the trend initiated in April and continues in May in the financial account of the “non-financial private sector”, which registered a deficit of USD 1,433 million. This result is mainly explained by net expenses for external asset formation (FAE) for 3,226 million dollars, partially compensated by net income of financial loans and credit lines for USD 1,247 million. In the first five months, the FAE gave a negative result for 4,716 million dollars, the same level as 2016. In May the “human people” bought tickets for 2,262 million dollars and made sales of 308 million dollars. As for the number of people who operated, One million individuals bought ticketswhile about 524,000 sold.
These people, if we complement the information on income distribution that the INDEC recently published, we found that it is a million is representative of 10% (1,862,017) richer that concentrates 32.6% of individual income, with a Average income per decil of $ 2,791,042 for 1T25; If we compare with 1T24 that decile represented 34.7% of individual income. Treasure or nothing.
Little investment (FBCF) in machinery and equipment, where national grew by 19% and imported 64% in 1T25, the same level for transport equipment, 66%. Therefore, imports accelerate within investment. This is the counter -soup of FAE’s demand for that million people, The richest 10% that no longer invests in the country, but buys non -resident businesses that liquidate their businesses and leave the country. Direct investments of non -residents in the first five months of the current They gave negative for 1,680 million dollarseven in pandemic there were expectations of non -residents to invest, the data for the same period in 2020 was 605 million dollars.
A sector of society already stung the ticket to the Government, repeating an old behavior, treasure and wait or transfer to re -objection? Complex words for a clear context. The government believes that the macro is in order, but the reality is that it is not so for families and homes. Artemio López warns us: “The income and social situation in Argentina in the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of aggravation. That the decline in concentration affects the loss of income of the middle sectors while an increase in the gap between rich and poor shows the persistence of a high concentration of income in the richest 10% and reflects an inequality that is deepened” Few winners and many losers.
Work is Health (Able)
Financial instability on the internal and external side shows that there is only a last instance lender: the IMF, although we could add two more actors: Anses and Banco Nación The State? The president’s electoral lies are clear as economic data is published. The growing expert with or without money now needs to “re -spend.”
Other data of the week were on the one hand the macroeconomic and unemployment aggregates to analyze the Economic health of the country. A first conclusion is a greater concentration of 10% richer. The middle class is reduced.
The data of unemployment They are 7.9%. Translated into people, it allows us to have a better dimension of the problem: the population with Informal employment It grew in 224,000 people (1T25 vs 1t24). If we take the number of unoccupied and suboccupied people we obtain the data of people with employment problemswhich are people with a job, but they look for another job because they are not reached, which between 1T23 and 1T25 They grew up in about 267,000 people.
A third fact, they are Private sector salaries And where the adjustment was against the political caste; By March 2025, compared to December 2023, about 110,500 jobs were destroyed. The data is alarming if we disaggregate it. Because only five productive branches had positive data in the period December 2023 and March 2025, while twenty -one showed negative data.
The destruction of Posts of salaried work in the private sector It reached 144,600, and the creation of wage employment was barely 41,600 jobs, although only in the agricultural, food and tobacco, trade, computer activities and research, safety and cleaning services. The construction sector only saw the destruction of wage labor for 45,000 jobs. These figures are enough to have an idea of what is happening in the private sector.
Continuing with the branches with negative jobs of jobs followed: Metalmecanic -8,700; Automotive and tires -3.600; Mining and oil with -3.100; Textile -10.600; Hotels and restaurant -11.300; and health (private) -4.800 (remember that at some point the health system were the heroes applauded by the middle and high class) after the tariff adjustment in private social works, the countercara will be dismissed in the same sector and distant shifts in time …
With this last fact and with a statement by the director of Economy of founding that, although it warns a problem of order of factors in the economy, it also adds that there is a problem in “Tax pressure and A still dense bureaucracy”First, the order of the factors does not alter the product, in this case the economic policy, which is what we are trying to understand.
While in health during this management, in the private sector, he threw dismissals for 4,800 jobs. In the public sector, for the same period, about 48,672 jobs were destroyed. In proportion, 66% public employment is in the provinces, 21% in the national administration and 13% in municipalities. Oedo-work data for wage public employment throw dismissals for almost 127,000 jobs. A total, between private and public, of destruction of jobs for almost 272,000 people.
Let’s go back to health, but focus on the public health system dependent on the Ministry of Health of the Nation. He also dismissed personnel working in different care programs according to the condition of the family of workers: there were more than 1,700 workers; mainly in the National Disability Agency (-470); Mental health and addictions “Lic. Laura Bonaparte” (-267); and Posadas Hospital (-223). However, where there was more destruction of public employment there was in the Bonaparte (-39%), followed by the National Cancer Institute (INC) -36%; Andis (-34%); and Incucai (-17%). Although the working people run out of work and without health, the tax pressure of 2024 is the same as 2023.
UBA economist, unpaz / unpaz
Thanks to the comments and suggestions of Gabriel Delgado (Lawyer Uncuyo)
Source: Ambito
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