The author points out that, in reality, the mission of the International Credit Agency did not go as well as the Government communicated. On the contrary, it has consequences that have an impact on the economy.
During this week he arrived in the country that was going to be The mission for the first review of the new April agreement of this year. At the time of seeing all the “creative accounting” data that was wanted to show, then the government began to request not being audited until next year. The problem that arises with this is that the IMF based on this review, originally scheduled for last June 13, has to release an approximate amount to the US $ 2,000 million to try to arrive at the election of mid -term of the Sustainability Guarantee (FGS) fund for a value close to US $ 4,000 million and even in the market of Future dollar for other U $ 2,000 million -recognized by Vice Minister of Economy of our country, of Chilean nationality, José Luis Daza-.
In another of the lines of the review are the creation of BOPREALESwhich the same international body demanded that they are not already believed in 2024, to change debt in pesos for dollar debt.
Although the most complex of all breaches is the No accumulation of gross reserves of the BCRA except for the rental of reservations based on international credits until the moment of June 24 to 26 that the producers of the field liquidated about US $ 500 million since as of this week 26 of this week they had to pay profits and personal goods for the period 2024. Returning on Friday 27 to have fall of reserves for US $ 75 million and taking the data from April 14 to today to US $ 3.3 mm.
Observing this disaster and the little that was taken into account last April, is that the mission ended up expressing “We continue to talk in very good terms with Argentina”. The result of this are directly the non -remission of the US $ 2 billion and leave the agreement in suspense because but the non -compliance report would be disastrous for the government and preventively so as not to tighten relations with the US.
What arrives from July 1 is the rise of retentions to the fieldeven, at higher levels than those governed before the transitory decline since before the reduction the soybean had a retention of 31% and rise to 33%; Therefore, from the link table, except for a part of the Mrs. They communicate that they will not liquidate more exports until November.
With the previous data we have to understand that the IMF would have to grant a triple waiver and cut relations from here with the consequence of the abrupt fall of this financial plan, instead doing what they did generate that this fall exists but not so loud. In the street we have a country risk that does not fall from around 700 basic points and pressure on the exchange rate, even on crypts, and it is suspected that the drop in reserves are also partly due to the friendly hands system that would be executed with relatives of relatives of the administration; But above all with the working population that has more and more month at the end of the salary but with a lot of indebtedness of families with the credit cards broke out and credits with increased delinquency in their repayments as a consequence of having dollarized public services and did not salary as they promised in their electoral campaign.
Economic and Tax Analyst
Source: Ambito
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