The problem of external accounts

A fact to consider is that as of December 2024, and for the first time since 2003 (beginning of the series), the Direct foreign investment begins to give negative. Between that month and May of 2025 a Net exit of US $ 2,374 million. These numbers indicate that not only There are no “rain of investments”, but they are going, adding tensions on the external front.

The other concept that stands out is that of the formation of external assets of the non -financial private sector (usually associated with capital escape), which registered a net exit in the last two months (April and May) for US $ 5,247 million. It is a consequence of the elimination of financial and commercial regulations and the partial suppression of the evil called “stock”, a measure that opened a window of opportunity for a sector to dollarize its holdings. The Expenditures for abroad for US $ 4,502 million in the accumulated of the first five months of 2025, stimulated by the delay in the exchange rate.

Recently the National Government presented the progress report of the Budget Law 2026 and according to its forecast the main trends They remain unchanged for the remaining of 2025year that is being traveled without counting Budget, By decision of the ruling. Among the most important data, a year -on -year inflation of 22.7% (as of December 2025), while the exchange rate would quote on 1,229 pesos per dollar (+20.4), resulting in a Average real exchange rate with the dollar of 8.6% In the year. That is, the tendency to appreciation of the local currency would continue.

The Executive Power awaits by 2025 a commercial surplus (goods and services) of US $ 4,913 million, very low compared to US $ 16,901 million of 2024. The imports would increase 19.6%, while exports would grow 3.8%. Another sample of the deterioration of the external sector.

Within this framework, the JP Morgan investment bank published a report for its clients that are making “Carry Trade” (Financial Bicycle) with public bonds in pesos, whose title says it all: “Taking a breath.” Your recommendation is to “Take profits” (Sell the titles in pesos and buy dollars). It also warns, among other issues, about Negative dynamics of the current account.

None of this surprises. It is the result of the opening model, of indebtedness and current deregulator, which, as happened on previous opportunities, It feeds a tendency to structural deficit in the field of currencies. It is not something that the markets or the IMF do not know, which although it puts the magnifying glass in the objective of reserves, It will not make further comments until October.

For its part, the judge of the second New York district, Loretta PreskaHe ordered Argentina to deliver 51% of YPF’s actions to the beneficiaries of the expropriation trial. An unprecedented decision that opposed the US government department itself in its brief Amicus Curiaesupporting in 2024 the position of the Argentine defense, because it would violate the norms of sovereign immunity.

I think it is important not to confuse about the bottom of the matter. It is true that the attitude and sense of opportunity of the judge caught attention. But translated into local debate, it must be said that Reestatization is not the inconveniencebut the problem was in the privatization itselfof a company that was born by a sovereign initiative of the Argentine State. The debate exceeds the operational details of the 2012 decision and is linked to the role of the State in the economy, especially in the issue of natural resources (and in particular with the potential of Vaca Muerta). The Loss of control of the exploitation of this strategic asset by the public administration would aggravate the problem of external restriction And it would make even more difficult forward (with a government that proposes sovereign and social inclusion) development) Be able to break with the current borrowing and dependence pattern.