Let’s look at the case of AL30, the most representative bonus:
Adjusted for payment of capital and interest, The Al30 is making historical maximums. The same fate run the other bonds that expire in 2029, 2035, 2038 and 2041, which are also in the area of historical maximums.
If there is something that should never underestimate is the reading of the bond market. Because There is the real moneythe one that moves more in accordance with the foundations.
3 months ago I commented on the next to 30, while I was correcting its price: “But if we leave for a moment the structural distrust and analyze the data, there are reasons to be optimistic and believe that they are a good opportunity. Argentina continues to do their homework regarding the order of public accounts and the management of inflation.” Complete note below: (https://www.ambito.com/opinions/compros-bones-argentinos-n6134242)
Today, three months later, that same bonus to 30 no longer yields 15.4%, but 12.5%. What happened? The price raised (dropped its performance) and made new maximums.
The market is seeing that the government continues with an orthodox agenda, that the expense is contained, that Inflation fell strong (although there is still missing)and that the main anchor remains the fiscal.
And in that context, The tir of the bonds low because the perception of risk also lowers.
That is key. It is the most powerful signal that the market emits today.
So,What do we do with actions?
Recall that they came from spectacular increases, of the order of 300%/400%/500%. It was logical to see a correction.
In addition, we must not forget that the Argentine shareholding market is very small and little liquid. If a large background or a relevant position decides to leave, prices fall strongly. Not because the country changed, but because There are few buyers on the other side.
Last, and not least, The legislative elections are close. And as always, uncertainty puts noise.
But if the bonds, which is where is the largest capital (much bigger) and more rationalthey are going up, it is a good sign.
Does it should buy shares before the elections?
Timing is never perfect. But what is clear is that today Argentine actions offer a very good risk/return relationship. Besides, Valuations are not even close to euphoria levelsas happened in the Picos de Macri.
They are active of much riskTherefore, they should not occupy a very important portion in a wallet. But, Without a doubt, it is to consider them.
Recall: In October there are legislative elections. And everything indicates that La Libertad Avanza has good chances. If that is confirmed, the market is likely to see it as a Current course ratification.
And if that happens, be late to get on.
Therefore, at times like these, The market is usually anticipated. Do not wait for everything to happen. He advances. And when he reacts, many times It is already with much higher prices.
Where to look?
There are sectors that today have solid arguments to be on radar. Energy It is one of them. With all the potential of Vaca Muerta and the energy surplus, The Argentine energy sector is still key. The conditions are given so that, if the macro accompanies, The Upside is very relevant.
Another sector with interesting foundations is The bank. Today the credit level in relation to GDP is very low. If the macro continues and if inflation continues, this ratio has A lot of space to climb.
The bonds are giving a very clear signal. Therefore, there is A window of opportunity in Argentine actions Risks? There is always. We are in Argentina, with all that entails.
But the interesting thing is that today, The actions offer a great relationship of what can be gained vs. what can be lost. No one sees the future, but with Friday’s diary it is something that makes sense.
If you are interested
Note: The material contained in this note should not be interpreted under any point of view as an investment council or recommendation for the purchase or sale of a particular asset. This content has only educational ends and represents only an opinion of the author. In all cases it is advisable to advise with a professional before investing.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
