Last week it passed in a climate of lights and shadows: on the one hand, Inflation continues to moderate, the exchange rate is more flexible with measured steps and the government achieved an exceptional debt roll in pesos; On the other, the productive challenges, the massive closure of SMEs, the increase in unemployment and the need to recover market confidence after the payment of debt press the current management.
It is encouraging that the survey of market expectations (REM) projects an inflation of just 1.8% for June and around 27% per year, a significant improvement with respect to the previous peak, which exceeds the official objective. At the same time, the official dollar remains under control within the band, which allows a partial output of the stocks and some normalization of commercial operations.
In the Financial Front, the Treasury obtained a forceful response of the market in its last tender: it placed debt for $ 8.5 billion, receiving offers for $ 9 billion and achieving a rollover of 295% on the maturities. This confidence signal is synergistic with the disarmament of the Lefi, whose expiration culminates on July 10, and gives a margin of maneuver to reorder the debt in pesos.
However, the payment foreseen for July 9, about US $ 4,200 million of global bonds again focuses on the government’s capacity to honor commitments without harming reservations. Although the will to pay as a key factor to mitigate the country risk, the fact generates pressure on net reserves, accentuating the need to demonstrate solidity in front of international markets.
This context generates uncertainty between investors and entrepreneurs. Management must translate the will to pay in tangible signals: accumulation of reservations, fiscal discipline and predictable direction. It is a condition for trust to become investments and do not only be debt management.
The other face of recovery is the sharp deterioration of productive and social fabric. Since the assumption of the new administration, more than 12,000 SMEs closed, according to official information, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025. This shows that, beyond nominal stabilization, the labor market and the industry still face fractures, with direct impact on consumption and well -being.
Even when the activity indicators showed a rebound in April, with EMAE growth, May and June data present ups and downs in key sectors such as construction, automotive industry and public works. The recovery is affirmed, but is heterogeneous and vulnerable to the external environment.
In monetary matters, after the closure of the Lefi, the rates in pesos will remain high. Savings in dollar-linked and CER letters continue to capture the interest of local investors, but the credit demand is still contained and the liquidity is scarce. The Central Bank chooses to hold rates to contain the dollar and avoid leaks towards financial assets.
Looking ahead, the level of reserves will be the central axis. The payment of US $ 4,200 million on July 9 will mark a turning point: successful management could strengthen the country risk and lower external interest rates; A sharp blow to reserves, on the other hand, would rekindle fears of instability and restrict access to financing.
The partial output of the stocks and the descent of inflation are positive milestones, but they are not enough to underpin sustained growth. Economic management faces the challenge of consolidating trust: demonstrating that it can honor debt without compromising reserves, reactivating production and containing unemployment. Only in this way can the country travel from a fragile stabilization towards a structural recovery with development and employment.
Financial Analyst
Source: Ambito
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