To this are added transfers to provinces that, after having been severely cut, in just five months they rebounded strongly, reaching $ 580,000 million, which is equivalent to a real year -on -year rise of 132.5%. The “Platita Plan” for Governors that libertarismo sworn never to repeat has been reinstated under another rhetoric; now It is presented as “correction of federal imbalances”.
But the real one Black Public Finance Hole It is not in current spending, but in debt. According to official data, $ 4,400 billion were paid and, interest accrued by public debt reached $ 23.4 billion (7% of GDP) so far this year. If cash payments and cash deficit are included as of June 30, the figure amounts to $ 27.8 billion, that is, 8.3% of GDP. The adjustment machinery failed to contain the structural deterioration of the fiscal balance; displaced it towards financial liabilitieswhere the maturities are refinance with very high rates, in increasingly short installments, and directly are capitalized, transferring the problem to the immediate future.
Issue and tensions in the banking system
In contrary to the official discourse of “zero emission”, the monetary base grew $ 5.08 billion between the end of March and June 2025. This expansion was mainly driven by the need to cover debt maturities that were not renewed, and for the forced reduction of instruments such as LECAPS and Lefis.
The monetary multiplier was compressed by the increase in bank lace, which led to the fact that the base grows 5.6% monthly on average since March, monetary aggregates did so only 3.5% monthly. This policy reduced the profitability of the “Money Market” funds, generating a migration to fixed -term deposits and unpaid accounts, but also caused tensions in bank liquidity.
The banks, given the shortage of available and the restrictions imposed from the BCRA, were forced to part with Lefi and Lecap to make funds. This dynamic remembers, with disturbing precision, the forced disarmament of Lebacs in 2018, which ended up dynamiting the peso market and opening the door to a exchange rate with devastating inflationary consequences.
The return of the “electoral dollar”
The exchange market begins to show unequivocal symptoms of exhaustion. On July 7, the official exchange rate exceeded $ 1,280, drilling the “ceiling” of $ 1,200 that the BCRA tried to maintain since May through sales in the futures market (US $ 1,537 million in May and US $ 500 million in June). These interventions, far from containing the pressure, multiplied it.
In parallel, the demand for currencies by human people reached US $ 2,262 million in May. The current account showed a $ 5,192 million deficit in the first quarter.
The situation is so critical that the Government has begun to make spot purchases of currency in blocks of US $ 200 million, artificially shrinking the offer in the Mulc (single and free market market). This strategy – apparently coordinated with media operations and parallel voices – has the sole objective of stretching the exchange anchor until October, at which time the governance of the libertarian model at the polls will be played.
The 2018 déjà vu and the lessons not learned
The parallels with the crisis of 2018 are evident and worrying. That year, the government of Mauricio Macri – with the same economic team today – faced a run that ended with a collapse of the exchange rate. Today, the signs are repeated: twin deficits makeup, disarmament of positions, exhaustion of reservations, and retail leakage (JP Morgan, 2025).
The difference, however, is that the current social context is much more fragile. To this is added an unprecedented distribution of consumption-where very few spend more and most cannot fill the changuito. In the absence of economic results, the ruling party resorts to propaganda, as did macrismo on its decline.
Economic policy or self -indulgent account?
The maneuver to install Alejandro Fantino as “sentimental spokesman” of the model It is not innocent. His message is presented as an informal dialogue with power, loaded with colloquial expressions (“mandriles”, “caputito”) and emotional justifications, but in reality it works as a discourse essay for what is coming; Anticipate that, if everything explodes, it will be because of “the usual.” It doesn’t matter who they are; The past, the opposition, the Discolos governors, the IMF, or the “market.”
This story is sustained in a self -indulgent narrative; The government says they do not lend it because “the caste is afraid of change”, not because the twin-real and accrued deficits are overwhelmed. In this context, recent reports of banks such as JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Barclays – all ideological allies of the current government – are categorical; They recommend not investing or lending more to Argentina until there is clarity about the post -election course.
Between the illusion and the abyss
Milei bets all his chips to a triumph in October, Caputo knows that the current situation is counted in fortnights. The most optimistic private estimates indicate that, even if Milei achieves a broad victory, the exchange rate could be corrected at $ 1,500 levels or even $ 1,700 in November, to absorb accumulated imbalances.
On the other hand, if the government loses electoral force or suffers a defeat, the scenario becomes binary; o Caputo renunciation and the economic equipment is restructured, or the system is self -adjusted via disorderly devaluation, decomeded inflation and new tensions in the debt market. In both cases, The “guilt is of others” is already underway, promoted by militant journalistslibertarian influencers, and social media operators.
Analysis closure
While the Argentine economy advances towards a possible abrupt correction of the country’s exchange and risk, the government decides to bet on discourse rather than economic policy. Fantino’s explanation was not an accident or communication error; It is part of a strategy that replaces technical approach by Emotional Storytellingin a context where indicators no longer admit cosmetic.
The combination of deficit deficit deferring financed with debt issuance in pesos, tensions in the exchange market, imminent maturities and explicit signs of the international financial sector -such as the recent reports of JP Morgan, Barclays and Morgan Stanley that recommend Do not invest In Argentina- configure a high fragility scenario. But the government does not seem to prepare to correct these imbalances, but to narrate them; prefer to blame others rather than assume the authorship of An unfeasible program.
The libertarian model, sustained based on social networks and ideological euphoria, begins to show signs of structural exhaustion. Given the proximity of the mid -term elections, the ruling party seems willing to everything to avoid a collapse; from Reinstall the “Platita Plan” for governors until operating with militant journalism. But the economy does not vote, it reacts. And when he does, he does it without anesthesia.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
