The future of our crisis covered a global theme: important BRICS meeting in Brazil, which followed the Mercosur meeting where Argentina ceded the presidency “pro tempore” to Brazil.
Let us remember that BRICSoriginally Brazil, Russia, India and China They expanded to various relevant countries such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Belarus, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Vietnam, Iran and Egypt.
This block that integrates countries with greater economic and commercial dynamism And that includes various allies from both the United States and China, right and left governments, countries of all continents, invited Argentina to join in 2023, an invitation accepted by the previous government and unusual rejected by President Milei. In the Rio meeting they participated for the first time as observers Chile, Uruguay and Colombia
To have a magnitude of BRICS’s global relevance, The block represents 41% of the world GDP and 51% of the global population. And we give ourselves the “luxury” of turning our backs.
China It is the main commercial partner of more than 130 countries worldwide, India The third partner of more than 40 countries and the block as a whole is the main producer of critical supplies in the global economy. Much more in a geopolitical war.
The Government only seeks an acetic alignment with the United States and Israelgenerating serious geopolitical complications, introducing serious economic and security geopolitical risks and losing trade and investment opportunities.
Mercosur was one of the few state policies of democracy since 1983 without exceptionsa key tool in economic and social political terms in a world of block regionalism and growing protectionism. The Government is emptying the block for the block to only sign free trade agreements with Europe and the United States, although the United States made it clear that it does not want a free trade agreement.
Mercosur and BRICs advance in different strategic options, From building a bioceanic corridor between Brazil and the Pacific to negotiate with Asia, lowering costs and without depending on high -risk geopolitical medium risk routes. Argentina could be at that discussion table, it is not and is left out of very important initiatives from the connectivity that would give competitiveness to our production.
BRICS claims a deep reform to the international financial systema central issue to prevent global crises that affect highly indebted countries such as Argentina. A necessary reform to access resources for development not to finance non -sustainable programs.
Argentina also renounces to be part of the New Development Bank (NBD BRICs), A key piece in a new financial architecture of the Global South in a country that needs infrastructure and development financing, a function that multilateral banks are abandoning or subordinating to adjustment programs with the IMF.
Brazil is promoting a BRICS trade in local currencies, which allows minimizing the use of reserves and also strengthening demand in pesos. That links with initiatives of Russia, China and other economies to defoar commercial relations for the loss of hegemony of the US dollar that is being depreciated global.
Many central banks are in turn by deelating their reservations. In fact, the strong rise of gold worldwide is correlated with that process, in a context where Argentina reduces the gold position in its reserves when the price of gold bats records and the world demands them as a good investment and a refuge before the conflict.
The use of local currencies and payment systems other than the United States Swift It is also seen as a way to avoid legal risks. As he saw with the vultures and with YPF, in Russia assets, but also with Pro western countries such as Iceland in 2008, the risks of embargoes for using dollar payment systems are very high.
That is why BRICs seeks alternatives such as making international transactions due to alternatives other than Swift, to avoid legal risks such as the Chinese CIP Payment System that is growing significantly in global transactions in Yuanes.
Clearly Argentina must return to a multipolar scheme, Recover regional integration, seek synergies with BRICS and strengthen a Mercosur for development.
Lula understands that in a protectionist world the “common external tariff must shield us against foreign trade wars.” In his words “the robustness of our institutionality accredits us before the world as reliable partners. It is no accident that more and more a greater number of countries and blocks are interested in approaching us.” Far from the suicide disinterest of the Argentine government and an ahistoric commercial opening that no country is implementing.
MERCOSUR-BRICS It implies a clear alternative to dollarization and currency restriction. In the block a common currency is discussed in the future. Starting steps to reach that goal implies reducing asymmetries, deepening regional integration with a view to competing in this hegemonic war, for a country like Argentina whose current policies weaken us deeply.
The unilateral dollarization proposed by the Government is a monetary regime that implies the disappearance of the national currency and the adoption of the dollar as the only legal currency in the country. This regime is only in force in less than 12 countries in the world. Except Hong Kong in any relevant origin.
For dollarization defenders, exchange risk, financial instability and inflation would be eliminated by suppressing the national currency.
If analyzed The experience of Ecuador and El Salvador Countries in the region that adopted the dollar as a currency in the last 20 years, outside Panama that dollarized in 1903 at the instances of the US, no earnings or growth, equity or in external sector are observed in the 20 years of dollarization.
The truth that Dollarization implies a loss of instruments to reduce international shocksdoes not reduce inflation, generates losses of competitiveness, does not close external restriction, generates fragility in the banking system, does not solve the fiscal issue or the question of strong indebtedness.
A very different issue is Recover the weight and negotiate in the medium term a common currency in the framework of a project of productive development and not of opening and with policies that ensure balanced currents of trade, investment and financing that generate integration and non -territorial fragmentation, productive disarticulation and social exclusion.
Recovering the ability to make monetary policy after years of high inflation, dollarization and with anti -informed and inconsistent policies goes hand in hand with a regional project.
It is key to develop Mercosur companies. Lula He also said that it is “necessary to reactivate the Mercosur business forum and offer support for SMEs” and that “It’s time for Mercosur to look towards Asia, The dynamic center of the world economy. Our participation in world value chains will benefit from greater proximity to Japan, China, Korea, India, Vietnam and Indonesia. “The world is changing hegemony and the risk is that as local conservatives 90 years ago, with the leonino Pact Pact Roca Runciman with the English we are wrong again the winning side.
It is also necessary to integrate not only commercial and financial dimensions. According to the president of Brazil, part of the changes that occur in geopolitics has to do with the technological advances and the new careers that occur between countries for dominating the novel tools, such as artificial intelligence. “New technologies are being concentrated in the hands of a small number of people and companies based in a lower number of countries.”
This strategic look implies promoting regional alliances; So “Recently Brazil and Chile formalized an alliance to create artificial intelligence models (AI) that reflect the cultural and linguistic realities of Latin America. The opposite of an Argentina that definance the Conicet and Arsat, education and scientific and technological financing, keys to a nation project with growth and equity.
Thus Mercosur and BRICs constitute a strategic agenda that allows a foreign and economic policy that enhances the country, Away from the subordination to hegemonies, an irrational opening and a delivery of the monetary, financial and productive economic sovereignty. It is about being a nation again, with that vision of the future of the liberators of our homelands, at regional scale, as only today is possible in this context for a national project.
Source: Ambito
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