In this difficult period for investment decision making in companies there are concepts that remain fundamental and allow to travel the challenges more orderly.
In High volatility and uncertainty periodsthe decisions of investment for companies They become more complex. Movements in the main financial variables, lack of certainty and expectations changes logically generate doubts and concern. However, Even in these scenarios, there are concepts that remain fundamental and that, well applied, allow the challenges to be more ordered disseminating the negative impact of adverse scenarios
Fundamental concepts for investment decision making
The starting point is always the same: Know in detail the investor profile. Not everyone faces the same risks in the same way, nor do we have the same objectives, deadlines or risk tolerance. Understanding that dimension is essential to define any strategy, beyond the junctures.
From our professional experience – and without pretending closed formulas that in the markets do not exist – we understand that an investment portfolio with a well -diversified asset allocation, designed based on the profile of each investor, is today a key tool. And one of the ways to conceptualize that diversification is through a structure in “thirds”, which allows capital to be distributed in a balanced way between different alternatives.
This approach proposes to allocate a First third at fixed rate instrumentsin short sections (with maturities less than Oct ’25), which offer positive real rates and allow to capture performance without assuming excessive exposure. A second third constituted In instruments tied to inflationas bonds with maturities between Oct’25 to Dec’26, which help preserve purchasing power in a context where, although deceleration signs are observed, inflation remains a risk factor to monitor.
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Finally, A third in dollars in dollarsboth corporate and short -term sovereigns, which provide protection and diversification. For investors with conservative profile this third could be constituted with Latin American fixed income funds without exposure in Argentina. If the profile is moderate, corporate bonds of Argentine companies of very good credit rating such as Pampa Energía could be included and, for more aggressive profiles, you can include Boppreal bonds with expiration within the mandate of Milei or global sovereign bonds (issued under New York law) or bonar bonds (sovereign bonds in USD issued under Argentine law)
This type of architecture is not static or universal. These thirds must be interpreted as neutral positions. Then, for example, a portfolio with bias to the “carry trade” must on pondering the first third to the detriment of the last third (which is the dollarized portion). That is, each investment portfolio must be thought and adapted depending on the needs, the horizon and the risk tolerance of each inverter. But, as a starting point, it allows to order the analysis and avoid impulsive decisions, which are usually bad counselors in complex environments.
From the daily work with clients, we see that those who take the time to understand their profile, plan their investments and properly diversify their investment portfolio, cross these scenarios with greater peace of mind and with better results.
The markets will continue to present challenges. The key is to face them with strategy, prudence and, above all, coherence with their own objectives.
Source: Ambito
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