The disarmament of the Lefis stock significantly reduced the attractiveness of the traditional carry, leaving depressed rates and a market that looks sideways at the dollar.
The recent rearrangement of rates in pesos, added to a more uncertain external context and the electoral dynamics that usually bring volatility over exchange rates, puts the dilemma between rate and dollar on the table. Within that framework, although the shelter in hard currency remains valid, they begin to appear specific opportunities for more aggressive profiles.
In recent weeks, the disarmament of the Lefis stock generated A significant surplus of pesos In the system leaving the bond rate around 16 %/17 % TNAwhich significantly reduced the attractiveness of the traditional carry and a five of portfolios. As expected, the exchange rate reacted: without being an alarming rise in nominal terms, broke with stable inertia that had been showing since April and forced the Ministry of Economy to absorb part of the liquidity via the tender on Wednesday where they were placed around 5 billion pesos.
dollar pesos
Depositphotos
Market signals and specific opportunities
That episode left a clear signal: With depressed rates, the market loses anchors, and the dollar looks sideways again. Even more when combined with factors such as an agro liquidation that still does not rebound, a more volatile global context and the proximity of the electoral period, which in Argentina historically brings with it greater exchange pressure. In this scenario, the search for coverage makes sense and no one could reproach an investor for a more conservative position.
However, the general rearrangement also left an interesting distortion: the long part of the peso curve was offered, and some bonds began to show yields that are worth reviewing. A clear case is that of Dual Bonus TTD26which adjusts by official exchange rate or CER, and today yields around 15 % direct in dollars if it is based on a 1 % monthly crawling of 1 % until its expiration in December 2026.
The Treasury placed US $ 1,638 m in Dual Yu $ 514 m in Letes
Curve in pesos: risks and hidden value
That is, even maintaining the current regime of controlled minidevaluations, the TTD26 offers implicit performance above the devaluation roof that projects the market. It is, without a doubt, An interesting alternative for those who are willing to assume duration and tolerate greater volatility. It is not a general recommendation, but a tactical opportunity for certain profiles.
In summary, the context forces to be surgical. There are no great trades of consensus, not a clear path towards the end of the year. The dollar is still a reasonable shelterand it will be even more if political uncertainty extends or contradictory fiscal signs appear. But in that moving field, The peso curve, with all its risks, also leaves margins to capture value in specific cases.
Head of Wealth Cocos Management.
Source: Ambito
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